Stock Markets June 4, 2026 05:41 AM

Bank of America: Beer Consumption Weakens Further in Second Quarter

Analysts at industry conference cite rising fuel costs as a factor as volume and shipments decline and market-share shifts continue

By Priya Menon STZ BUD TAP

Bank of America analysts who attended the Beer Marketer's Insights Spring Conference in Chicago reported that beer consumption trends reversed earlier improvements and worsened in the second quarter of 2026. NielsenIQ data through mid-May showed a sharper year-over-year decline compared with the first quarter, while speakers at the conference pointed to higher gasoline prices reducing consumer disposable income. Industry shipment data and decade-long market-share movements were also highlighted.

Bank of America: Beer Consumption Weakens Further in Second Quarter
STZ BUD TAP

Key Points

  • Beer consumption deteriorated in Q2 2026, with NielsenIQ showing a 5.5% year-over-year decline through mid-May, worsening from a 1.6% decline in Q1.
  • Shipments were down 3.0% year-over-year in Q1, and 2025 shipments totaled 183 million barrels, the lowest in 36 years.
  • Market-share shifts continue: Constellation Brands and Anheuser-Busch InBev gained volume share year-to-date, while Molson Coors lost share; Michelob Ultra remained the top brand by volume.

Bank of America analysts at the Beer Marketer's Insights Spring Conference in Chicago said beer consumption trends deteriorated in the second quarter of 2026 after showing signs of improvement earlier in the year.

Data presented at the conference showed consumption fell 1.6% year-over-year in the first quarter, which had been an improvement relative to the five-year compound annual growth rate decline of 3.1%. Shipments during that same first-quarter period were down 3.0% year-over-year.

Those trends intensified into the second quarter. NielsenIQ figures through mid-May indicated beer consumption was down 5.5% year-over-year, a decline that represented a 260 basis point deceleration versus the first-quarter result. Conference speakers attributed the steeper drop to higher gas prices, which they said have reduced disposable income for consumers.

Market-share movements by volume were also discussed. Year-to-date changes in volume share showed Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) up 63 basis points and Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) up 30 basis points, while Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) lost 54 basis points.

Presenters noted that 2025 shipments totaled 183 million barrels, the lowest annual level in 36 years. Over the past decade the industry has seen notable shifts in share: Constellation Brands more than doubled its market share, Anheuser-Busch InBev declined by 910 basis points, Molson Coors decreased by 412 basis points, and Mark Anthony Brands grew from 70 basis points to 410 basis points.

Circana data shown at the event identified Michelob Ultra as the leading beer brand by volume. The brand maintained a price differential below $4 per case relative to Bud Light and was priced about $7.50 less than Modelo Especial, based on the figures presented.

Attendees and analysts emphasized the combination of falling consumption, reduced shipments, and evolving share dynamics as the central themes emerging from the conference. They highlighted the role that consumer spending pressures appear to be playing in recent volume declines, as reflected in the second-quarter data through mid-May.

Risks

  • Continued declines in beer consumption could pressure industry shipments and revenues - impacting beverage producers, distributors, and retailers.
  • Rising gasoline prices, cited by conference speakers, are reducing disposable income and may further suppress consumer spending on beer - affecting consumer discretionary spending patterns.
  • Ongoing market-share shifts among major brewers introduce competitive uncertainty for individual company volumes and pricing - relevant to investors in beer-related stocks and the packaged beverages sector.

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