Bank of America analysts reported that chief executives of U.S. banks struck an encouraging tone in management updates last week, highlighting healthy demand for commercial loans and generally strong consumer credit quality.
According to the BofA note, executives described deposit flows as broadly stable and suggested that pricing pressures on deposits remain manageable. Those comments came alongside company-level disclosures and a separate data snapshot from the Federal Reserve that showed loan growth continuing to track at year-over-year rates similar to recent months.
Canadian lender BMO - which derives more than 40% of its earnings from the U.S. - told investors during its earnings call that momentum in its U.S. business has been building. The bank reported heightened client activity across segments, industries and geographies over the prior 60 days and said that pipeline strength had continued into the early portion of the third quarter.
Federal Reserve H.8 data for the week ending May 20 indicate overall loan growth of 7.4% year-over-year, compared with 7.5% at the end of March. That pace suggests a degree of stabilization across several major loan categories cited by the analysts, including commercial and industrial loans, residential mortgages, commercial real estate and auto lending.
The report also noted that credit growth among non-deposit financial institutions slowed modestly over the same interval - decelerating to 25.9% from 28.3%.
Bank of America analysts emphasized that seasonal deposit outflows have been less severe than many had expected. In their view, that steadier deposit base, combined with improved yields available on reinvestment thanks to elevated interest rates, opens the possibility for upside surprises to consensus net interest income projections.
The information in the BofA note and the Fed data together outline a picture in which loan demand and credit quality are holding up, deposit dynamics are manageable and higher reinvestment yields could bolster banks' interest income if current conditions persist.
Summary
Bank of America analysts said bank CEOs reported healthy commercial loan demand and solid consumer credit quality. Deposits were described as stable with manageable pricing pressures. BMO highlighted momentum in its U.S. operations, and Fed H.8 data showed loan growth at 7.4% year-over-year for the week ending May 20. Non-deposit financial institution growth slowed to 25.9% from 28.3%, and seasonal deposit outflows were milder than expected, leaving room for potential upside to net interest income driven by higher reinvestment yields.