Shares of AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) fell 13% on Thursday after Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket detonated in a fireball while undergoing tests on a Florida launchpad.
The New Glenn vehicle was in preflight testing ahead of what was to be its fourth launch. Blue Origin was preparing the rocket for missions that include deploying satellites for Amazon's Leo network, which is positioned as a competitor to SpaceX's Starlink. An Amazon spokesperson confirmed that no satellites were aboard the New Glenn at the time of the explosion.
Market watchers and analysts said the accident will likely delay AST SpaceMobile's plans to put its commercial constellation into service. The company had previously targeted a launch window in the fourth quarter of 2026. Those analysts now expect the deployment could slip into the first quarter of 2027, though they stressed that precise timing remains uncertain.
The incident has implications beyond AST SpaceMobile. Amazon's schedule for rolling out the Leo constellation may also be affected, a development that could postpone the arrival of another competitor in the direct-to-device satellite market. AST SpaceMobile's strategy depends on access to launch vehicles, leaving the business exposed when a launch provider experiences a disruption.
Blue Origin, which is backed by Jeff Bezos, has positioned New Glenn as a central element of its effort to compete in commercial launch services. The rocket is a key vehicle for deploying satellite constellations, and its failure during testing underscores the risks that satellite operators face when dependent on third-party launch providers.
At this stage, details about the cause of the explosion and the full operational impact on launch schedules remain limited. Analysts and company planners will need further information from Blue Origin to refine revised timelines for both AST SpaceMobile's commercial service launch and Amazon's Leo deployments.
Key points
- AST SpaceMobile shares fell 13% after Blue Origin's New Glenn exploded during testing.
- The New Glenn was being prepared for missions that would support Amazon's Leo satellite network; Amazon said no satellites were aboard.
- Analysts expect AST SpaceMobile's commercial constellation rollout to move from Q4 2026 into Q1 2027, though exact dates are still undetermined. Sectors affected include aerospace launches, satellite services, and direct-to-device telecom markets.
Risks and uncertainties
- Launch schedule risk - Dependence on third-party launch providers creates vulnerability for satellite operators and can delay deployment timelines in the aerospace and satellite services sectors.
- Operational uncertainty - The cause of the New Glenn explosion and the extent of damage to Blue Origin's launch cadence are not yet known, leaving timelines for affected constellations unclear.