Overview
President Trump's approval rating has trended downward since he took office, and that slide continued through the period of direct conflict between the United States and Iran, according to a note from Wolfe Research. The firm argues the war evolved into a political liability for the administration as it extended beyond initial expectations, exerting additional pressure on the president's public standing and giving marginal polling lifts to Congressional Democrats.
Ceasefire and investor questions
With a ceasefire largely holding and pressures on energy prices easing, market participants and observers have asked whether the end of hostilities could meaningfully change the political calculus ahead of November's midterm elections. Wolfe Research says this is a topic of active interest but cautions that the underlying approval trend predates the conflict.
Approval path versus temporary shocks
The research note emphasizes that Mr. Trump's approval had been on a downward trajectory since his inauguration and that the U.S.-Iran conflict did not represent a clear inflection point in that longer-term pattern. Wolfe calculates that even if approval were to rebound fully to pre-war levels, the president would still remain more than ten percentage points below parity in approval measures.
Generic ballot dynamics
Wolfe also observes a lag between the drop in the president's approval and Democratic gains on the generic Congressional ballot. The analysts attribute this gap in part to Democrats' own unpopularity and to the fact that, with presidential approval already low, additional negative views have been accumulating among Republican-leaning voters rather than converting undecided or independent voters.
Turnout and broader midterm challenges
The note states that a recovery in support from Republican-leaning voters would not necessarily resolve the Republican Party's broader midterm vulnerabilities. While such a rebound could lessen the risk of weak turnout among Republican-leaning independents, it would not by itself remove other structural challenges identified by the firm.
How the conflict will be remembered and party outlook
Wolfe Research adds that the conflict is unlikely to be viewed widely as a political success. The analysts expect most voters to see the country as worse off than before the confrontation, citing higher energy prices and what they describe as a broken anti-war campaign pledge. On the partisan outlook, the firm reiterated its expectation that Democrats will take control of the House in November while falling narrowly short of winning a Senate majority. Wolfe says it will refresh its midterm forecast in the weeks ahead as voters respond to the cessation of hostilities.
Agreement and conflict end
The research note says it expects the 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, signed earlier this week, to hold and for the conflict to end.