Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,187 total articles
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher as market participants digested the Federal Reserve's decision to keep its policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% despite a three-member push for a hike, while attention also centered on earnings from large technology firms investing heavily in artificial intelligence. Persistent concerns about inflation linked to an e…
A poll of economists indicates China's official manufacturing activity likely stalled in July, with an expected PMI reading at 50.0. While external demand — particularly for AI-related high-tech goods — has supported production, weak domestic consumption, sluggish bank lending and persistent housing and employment weaknesses are weighing on broader…
J.P. Morgan has revised its forecast and now anticipates a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate in December, after the Federal Reserve elected to keep policy rates steady at its July meeting. The bank cited comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, persistent inflationary pressures, and the potential for committee urgency as reasons for bri…
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, a decision that produced three dissents and was widely characterized as a "hawkish hold." With a new Fed chair abandoning regular forward guidance, markets are increasingly relying on incoming data to anticipate future rate moves. That shift has elevated the pot…
A divided Federal Reserve and ambiguous guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh have left bond markets effectively dictating interest rate expectations. While the Fed held policy steady, three dissenting votes signaled growing disagreement among officials. Rising long-term yields and a steepening Treasury curve coincided with fragile risk appetite driven b…
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at the end of a two-day meeting on July 31, maintaining the 1% benchmark set after a 25 basis point increase in June. Despite the likely pause, a combination of stubborn inflation pressures, a sharp rise in producer prices and a markedly weak yen suggest the BOJ will retain a ti…
The U.S. economy probably sustained a steady expansion in the second quarter, underpinned by firmer consumer spending and continued double-digit growth in business investment in equipment tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. While these forces helped absorb shocks from the Middle East conflict and larger tax refunds supported household i…
Italy and the United States are preparing to formalize a bilateral cooperation framework centered on the Pax Silica initiative. The agreement, set for signing this Friday in Brindisi, targets the stabilization and expansion of artificial intelligence supply chains across allied nations. The partnership explicitly covers semiconductors, critical min…
The International Monetary Fund has reached a staff-level agreement with Bolivia on a $1.9 billion, three-year financing program intended to help the country restore depleted foreign-exchange reserves, ease a dollar shortage that has constrained imports and tackle inflation. The package requires approval from the IMF’s Executive Board and Bolivia’s…
Markets entered the Federal Reserve's rate decision with uncommon ambiguity, as futures placed roughly a 65% probability on a pause and 35% on a hike. Supporters of a rate increase point to persistent inflation well above the Fed's 2% goal and a stable labor market, while advocates for holding rates steady say the main inflation drivers are easing …
Deutsche Bank and UBS both exceeded profit forecasts for the second quarter, driven by heightened trading activity and resilient retail businesses, reinforcing a multiyear recovery in European banks. Standard Chartered also beat expectations and raised its full-year income outlook after strong wealth and global banking revenue. Despite the rally an…
Michigan health officials reported 10,077 cases of cyclosporiasis and 160 hospitalizations, part of a broader outbreak that has reached 45 states since May. Investigations have identified salad greens, including iceberg lettuce from a supplier linked to Taco Bell, as a common source in some clusters, while federal authorities probe other outbreaks …
The Bank of Mozambique left its MIMO policy rate unchanged at 9.25% on Wednesday, marking the third straight meeting without adjustment. Inflation accelerated to 7.51% in June from 7.22% in May and officials flagged elevated risks from higher fuel prices, growing debt levels, climate-related shocks and the conflict in the Middle East. The central b…
Mortgage interest rates across major U.S. home loan products rose last week, with the 30-year fixed mortgage nearing a one-year high after renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities lifted oil prices and inflation-sensitive Treasury yields. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported week-over-week increases in fixed and adjustable rates and a notable decline in …
Anthony Fauci invoked his Fifth Amendment right at a Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee hearing on Wednesday, declining to testify about his role in the U.S. Covid-19 response. Fauci said the hearing is intended to push him into making statements that could be used against him, and singled out Senator Rand Paul, who chairs th…
S&P Global's lead Latin America ratings analyst says El Niño on its own is not expected to trigger sovereign downgrades unless the weather phenomenon proves far worse than anticipated or governments adopt costly, broad fiscal interventions. The agency is watching both the economic disruption from droughts or floods and how authorities respond, with…
Uniper has finalized a 20-year liquefied natural gas purchase agreement with Canada that secures 2 million tonnes per year from the Ksi Lisims LNG project starting in 2032. The contract builds on an earlier June understanding and follows related long-term deals by other German importers as Europe seeks alternatives to Russian pipeline gas.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures edged higher as traders prepared for the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, even as semiconductor sectors wavered and broader markets absorbed concerns about the sustainability of corporate AI investments. Market attention was divided between forthcoming Big Tech earnings, volatile energy prices tied to Middle East te…
JPMorgan told clients that the Federal Reserve's decision today is the primary market catalyst during regular trading hours. The bank's economists expect a hold on rates with multiple hawkish dissents and mapped out probabilities for hawkish hold, dovish hold, and rate hikes, estimating corresponding S&P 500 moves and noting options-implied moves a…
SoFi updated its full-year revenue target for 2026 after reporting a robust second quarter marked by record member additions and loan originations. Revenue and net interest income accelerated sharply year-over-year, while management highlighted resilient consumer credit performance amid a challenging macro backdrop.
Single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that multiply daily returns have surged across Asia after debuting in the United States in 2022. Products tied to South Korea’s chip giants - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - have driven outsized flows that feed back into share prices, magnifying intraday moves and elevating volatility across th…
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on Wednesday places President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical second-round contest for October’s presidential election, with Lula at 49.2% and Bolsonaro at 42.9%. In first-round figures, Lula leads at 44.9% versus Bolsonaro’s 35.8%. The survey, conducted July 22-27 …
Stocks flagged by a proprietary AI stock-picker have produced a string of sharp gains in July, with Tenet Healthcare jumping roughly 32% after reporting stronger-than-expected results and guidance. The moves come amid a wide market rotation that has hit tech-heavy indexes while lifting other segments of the market. Investors following the AI-driven…
Federal Reserve officials have reintroduced M2 money supply figures into their public analysis, a move some economists say could aid in spotting longer-run inflation trends. While proponents argue money measures can offer a useful signal alongside other data, skeptics caution the aggregates have been unreliable predictors for decades and that fisca…
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at Wednesday's announcement, but unusually high uncertainty surrounds the decision because Chair Kevin Warsh has adopted a no-guidance stance. With the committee split at the prior meeting and several policymakers signaling concern about inflation, the final outcome may turn o…
