A new poll from Quaest, commissioned by brokerage Genial and released on July 9, indicates that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has extended his advantage over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro as Brazil heads toward the October presidential election.
The survey, conducted in the period between July 10 and July 13 and covering 2,004 respondents, shows Lula with 45% of voting intentions in a hypothetical second-round runoff. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, identified as the leading opposition candidate in the poll, records 37% in the same runoff scenario.
That result represents a modest change from a June Quaest poll, which had Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro 44% to 38% in a comparable head-to-head matchup. The poll carries a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction.
In a first-round configuration with multiple contenders, the Quaest survey places Lula on 40% of votes and Bolsonaro on 28%. Other named candidates in that scenario receive smaller shares: Ronaldo Caiado at 4%, Renan Santos at 3% and Romeu Zema at 2%.
The polling exercise is the first Quaest release after several recent political events noted by the pollster - specifically a corruption investigation involving a senior ally of President Lula and disagreements over who is responsible for newly raised U.S. tariff threats against Brazil. The poll report frames those developments as part of the immediate political backdrop.
Under Brazil's electoral rules, if no candidate achieves more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two vote-getters advance to a second-round runoff. The Quaest findings therefore provide a snapshot of both initial voter preferences and likely pairings should a runoff be required.
Methodology and statistical notes
The questionnaire sampled 2,004 individuals between July 10 and July 13. The published margin of error is two percentage points either way, a standard disclosure for polls of this sample size.
The poll's timing and the list of events cited by Quaest - the corruption probe and tariff disputes - are explicitly referenced in the poll release.
Bottom line
The latest Quaest poll, issued July 9 and gathered from interviews over a four-day span, records a modest widening of President Lula's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in both first-round and potential runoff matchups, while situating the numbers amid recent political controversies.