Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,903 total articles
Deutsche Bank's ten-year assessment of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union finds the economy about 4% smaller than it would have been, with employment down and consumer prices modestly higher. Using a synthetic control comparison, the bank traces much of the divergence to the post-pandemic period and the implementation of the …
China's major industrial firms logged double-digit profit growth in May, though the pace slowed from April. Export demand and strong manufacturing output helped sustain gains, while the domestic economy remains constrained by a prolonged property downturn and soft consumer spending. Sector performance diverged sharply, with electronics-related prod…
China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee has officially removed six military lawmakers, former financial regulator Li Yunze, and Politburo member Ma Xingrui from their legislative posts. The dismissals, reported by state media, mark the latest phase of President Xi Jinping’s long-running anti-corruption campaign targeting high-ranking …
S&P Global Ratings has officially reaffirmed the United States' long-term sovereign credit rating at AA+ and retained a stable outlook, highlighting the underlying resilience of the national economy. The agency anticipates that solid tax revenues, bolstered by sustained economic growth and tariff collections, will help stabilize fiscal deficits in …
Goldman Sachs research indicates that artificial intelligence and high-performance computing could fundamentally alter the economics of new oil and gas developments. By integrating digital tools into exploration and engineering phases, the firm projects a substantial reduction in development timelines for greenfield deepwater projects and improved …
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed the United States sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook, citing economic resilience, policy frameworks, and monetary flexibility. The agency highlights structural fiscal pressures, projected debt levels exceeding 100% of GDP by 2029, and the role of political negotiations in maintaining market confiden…
The outgoing chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, has signaled significant downside risks to the global economic outlook as geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, threaten to escalate. With strategic petroleum reserves increasingly depleted foll…
S&P Global Ratings confirmed the United States' long-term AA+ and short-term A-1+ sovereign ratings and maintained a stable outlook, while flagging the nation's fiscal path as its principal credit weakness. The agency projects continued economic resilience and steady tariff revenue will help keep deficits elevated but broadly stable, even as net ge…
Uruguay will keep its existing fiscal deficit targets in the budget review bill due to Congress on June 30, while allocating additional funds toward child poverty programs, policing, education and services for the homeless. The government has raised its proposed year-on-year spending increase for 2027 to $81 million, with $31 million of that sum de…
The United Nations' International Maritime Organization reported that roughly 80 naval mines remain in the Traffic Separation Scheme running through the Strait of Hormuz. While alternate routes have been established along Oman's coast and nearer to Iran, the presence of explosives in the central corridor is complicating efforts to return shipping t…
Iraq's Oil Ministry said OPEC has begun a phased restoration of the country's pre-war production allocations. The ministry said this step will bolster Iraq's capacity and aid recovery of its oil sector, and reiterated Baghdad's support for reassessing quotas to reflect member states' conditions. The prime minister has not discussed leaving OPEC, th…
Euro zone government bond yields fell on Friday, tracking a drop in oil prices after shipping resumed through the Strait of Hormuz. Germany's 10-year yield eased to 2.848%, and broader benchmark yields registered their biggest weekly fall in over a year as markets pared back expectations for further central bank tightening.
International Monetary Fund chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the U.S. dollar remains the central anchor for global trade, banking and reserve holdings, despite shifts in trade flows following U.S. unilateral tariffs. He noted recent gold price gains were largely driven by exchange-traded funds and holdings by stablecoin issuers, while…
The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, endorsed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s decision to reduce explicit forward guidance on interest rates, calling the shift “entirely appropriate.” Gourinchas cautioned that central banks must still provide some information that lets markets form long-term expectations and noted the practical…
The International Monetary Fund's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, described Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's decision to scale back robust forward guidance as "entirely appropriate." Gourinchas, who will leave his IMF post next week to return to academia, argued that overly rigid commitments to future policy became problematic when U…
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said broad-based inflationary pressures influenced his decision to include a single interest-rate increase for this year in the Fed’s recent economic projections. Speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival, Kashkari emphasized that his inflation concerns extend beyond the effects of tensions in the Midd…
The central bank says the current liquidity shortfall does not require fresh policy measures even as household and business withdrawals push cash held outside banks up 17.5% year-on-year to over 19 trillion roubles. Officials report they are supplying sufficient liquidity to banks, but data show a widening deficit that could deepen by year-end, whi…
President Donald Trump said Iran launched at least four one-way attack drones at ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, striking one cargo vessel and prompting the downing of three other drones. The incident coincided with a pause in a United Nations-coordinated evacuation of seafarers and was linked to a report that the Singapore-flagged Ever Love…
Billionaire investor Leon Black told a House Oversight and Reform Committee panel that he had no knowledge of or participation in the criminal conduct of Jeffrey Epstein. In an opening statement provided to the committee, Black denied abusing women, having relations with underage females, engaging in sex trafficking, paying Epstein for access to wo…
Billionaire investor Ken Griffin provided the largest private contribution toward the two-year contract of Argentina coach Mauricio Pochettino, a Citadel spokesman confirmed. The move formed part of broader private support for U.S. soccer that included donations of tickets to local residents and funding for community pitches; the U.S. men’s nationa…
UBS Asset Management's annual Reserve Manager Survey of roughly 30 central bank reserve managers found a majority now sees stagflation as the most probable five-year scenario. Persistent inflation, rising U.S. rates and higher long-term yields have shifted priorities for reserve investing, accelerating moves toward diversification, reducing U.S. as…
Oman has informed European officials that a return to pre-war conditions in the Strait of Hormuz is not feasible and that ships using the passage could face charges for services such as de-pollution or navigation assistance. Omani officials said they will operate within international maritime law, but it remains unclear whether any fees would be co…
John Bolton, who served as national security adviser to President Donald Trump from April 2018 to September 2019, pleaded guilty in federal court in Maryland to one criminal count of retaining national defense information. The plea carries a statutory maximum prison term of five years and a potential fine of $2.25 million. A number of related charg…
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday after oil prices softened following an increase in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That traffic reached its highest level since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Market participants are weighing the outlook for Fed policy as inflation remains above the 2% target and as some …
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced sanctions on eight individuals and entities tied to procurement and recruitment networks supporting the warring parties in Sudan. The Office of Foreign Assets Control targeted firms and people linked to the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, citing the humanitarian toll of …
