Egypt's headline inflation likely accelerated in July, with a median forecast from a 13-analyst poll anticipating an annual rate of 15.6% compared with 14.3% in June. The poll, conducted between July 29 and August 6, produced forecasts that ranged from a low of 14.6% to a high of 16.3%.
The expected rise is attributed in the poll to an unfavourable base effect alongside intensifying price pressure across both food and non-food categories. A smaller sample of three analysts put core inflation at a median of 14.9%, with individual estimates spanning from 14.4% to 15.1%.
Commentary from market participants highlighted how recent price dynamics and administered cost adjustments have pushed the annual rate higher after earlier declines. In the words of James Swanston at Barclays:
"Stronger food inflation and an uptick in non-food inflation too, will have driven the headline rate higher in July to 16.1% year-on-year."
The government statistics agency CAPMAS is scheduled to release the official July consumer price figures on Monday, August 10.
Analysts in the poll offered views on the month-on-month momentum as well as the likely persistence of the annual increase. Mohamed Abu Basha at EFG Holding expects a modest month-on-month rise of 0.5%, noting that an unfavourable base will lift the annual headline figure. Abu Basha added that he anticipates this upward effect to continue into August before the base effect normalises and inflation begins a downward trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Administrative price adjustments are expected to influence upcoming prints. Daniel Richards of Emirates NBD highlighted that an average 12% increase in electricity tariffs for most consumption brackets implemented earlier in the month is likely to feed into the August inflation reading.
These changes form part of a broader process of subsidy reduction for fuel and electricity tied to commitments under an $8 billion support package with the International Monetary Fund. The removal of subsidies has repeatedly transmitted into consumer prices even as headline inflation had cooled earlier in the year.
Annual inflation had previously fallen sharply from a record high of 38% in September 2023, aided by the IMF-backed reform programme agreed in March 2024, before base effects and administered price increases reversed some of that decline in recent months.
Data and next steps
- Official July CPI release from CAPMAS due August 10.
- Market attention will focus on August's print as tariff hikes are likely to influence that reading.
- Core inflation estimates remain high in the poll, suggesting underlying price pressures.