The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Tuesday that countries adopting the global minimum tax on multinational companies recorded higher corporate tax receipts in the first year of the reform without clear reductions in jobs or investment.
Designed to curb a long-running international competition to offer ever-lower corporate tax rates, the measure allows countries to impose top-up taxes when multinational profits are taxed below 15% in other jurisdictions, lowering the incentive to shift profits to low-tax locations. More than 60 countries and territories have put the rules into practice, and a number of other jurisdictions are preparing to follow suit.
The Paris-based OECD estimated that the policy lifted government revenue by between €79 billion and €109 billion in its first year - equivalent to roughly 2.4% to 3.4% of global corporate income tax receipts. The calculation covered activity after the rules came into force in 2024.
The global minimum tax applies to multinational groups with annual revenue above €750 million and aims to ensure that firms face an effective tax rate of at least 15% in the jurisdictions where they operate. To evaluate the policy's immediate effects, the OECD used a comparison of firms just above the revenue threshold and those just below it.
That comparison showed that companies subject to the new rules experienced higher effective tax rates. At the same time, the OECD found limited evidence that the reform had influenced investment or employment decisions among the affected firms during the first year.
Unlike earlier OECD estimates that relied on modelling, this study is based on observed corporate behaviour following the rollout of the rules. The first-year revenue outcome is lower than the OECD's earlier pre-implementation projection - which had suggested the reform could eventually add $155 billion to $192 billion a year to global corporate tax revenues - a difference the OECD says reflects that the new study captures only the initial year of implementation.
The study also covers a period prior to a later agreement reached by the Trump administration that exempted U.S.-headquartered multinational companies from certain key elements of the regime under a separate "side-by-side" arrangement acknowledging the United States' existing minimum tax. Because the OECD analysis is limited to 2024, it does not incorporate the effects of that subsequent agreement.
For reference, the study uses the exchange rate of $1 = 0.8745 euros in its reporting.
Context and methods
The OECD's assessment focuses on the immediate, observable reactions of large companies to the tax's rollout. By comparing firms positioned just above and just below the €750 million revenue threshold, the organisation sought to isolate the influence of the new rules on effective tax rates and on corporate decisions related to investment and employment.
Findings
- Estimated additional government revenue in the first year: €79 billion to €109 billion.
- Increase in effective tax rates for firms covered by the rules.
- Limited evidence that investment or employment changed materially for those firms in 2024.
The OECD study provides a first look at the revenue and behavioural effects of a major international tax reform, while noting that full-year and longer-term impacts may evolve as more data become available and as subsequent policy adjustments - including the U.S. "side-by-side" arrangement - take effect.