Goldman Sachs warns that a faster shift to electric vehicles - spurred by a Hormuz-related oil supply shock - could shave a meaningful amount off global oil consumption by late 2027. In a note, the bank quantified potential losses under two alternate adoption paths while pointing to recent strength in EV penetration data.
In the bank's analysis, global EV car sales penetration climbed by 3.4 percentage points to reach 26.1% last month, marking the second-highest monthly reading on record. Using that backdrop, Goldman Sachs estimated two principal demand scenarios through December 2027.
Under the "Temporary Acceleration" scenario - which assumes regional EV penetration rates hold steady at their May 2026 levels - Goldman Sachs calculates an estimated global oil demand reduction of about 0.13 million barrels per day by December 2027.
By contrast, the bank's "Persistent Acceleration" scenario assumes regional EV penetration continues to grow in a manner linear to the February-May 2026 trends. Under that path, the demand loss rises to roughly 0.32 million barrels per day over the same period.
Goldman Sachs also highlighted the composition of EV sales in several large Asian markets. Two- and three-wheeler EVs account for a majority of total EV sales in India, Vietnam, and China, and these vehicle types can displace a substantial but smaller amount of fuel on a per-unit basis - roughly one-third to one-half of the fuel a passenger car EV would displace, the bank wrote.
The note observed that 12 of the world's 15 largest EV markets have recorded rising penetration, with China leading the gains; China's penetration rate rose by 11.4 percentage points in the period referenced by Goldman Sachs.
These scenarios present alternative paths for oil demand tied directly to how regional EV penetration evolves. The bank's figures isolate the demand impacts implied by those penetration trajectories without layering on other external assumptions.
Goldman Sachs' estimates frame a narrow but measurable route by which accelerated EV uptake could subtract from oil consumption by late 2027. The scale of the effect differs substantially depending on whether recent adoption trends persist or plateau at their May 2026 levels.
Impacted sectors - Oil and petroleum product markets, automotive manufacturers and suppliers, and alternative energy and charging infrastructure are among the sectors most directly affected by the demand trajectories Goldman Sachs models.