S&P Global Ratings upgraded Trekor Metals Ltd. (formerly Taseko Mines Ltd.) to a 'B' rating from 'B-' and adjusted the outlook to positive, reflecting what the ratings firm described as materially improved cash flow prospects and a clearer path to lower leverage as production from the Florence copper project accelerates.
Alongside the issuer upgrade, S&P raised the recovery rating on Trekor's senior secured notes due 2030 to '2' from '3' and lifted the issue-level rating to 'B+' from 'B-'. The ratings actions underline the agency's view that Florence's production ramp provides tangible credit support for the Canada-based miner.
S&P expects consolidated copper output to climb roughly 30% to about 140 million pounds in 2026 as Florence continues its staged ramp-up, which the agency notes was completed in late 2025 and produced first copper earlier this year. Forecasts see production increasing further to approximately 185 million pounds in 2027 once Florence reaches its design throughput. Through the end of the second quarter of 2026, Trekor produced close to 7 million pounds of copper from its initial wells.
Based on those production trajectories and anticipated cost and cash-flow performance, S&P projects that the company's adjusted net leverage, measured as adjusted debt to EBITDA, will fall to about 2.0x in 2026 from 4.8x in 2025, and compress further to roughly 1.5x in 2027. The agency also expects Trekor to turn positive on free operating cash flow in the current year, after an adjusted free operating cash flow deficit of C$283 million in 2025. Cumulative free operating cash flow for 2026-2027 is forecast at C$600 million to C$650 million.
Capital spending requirements are expected to decline materially now that construction at Florence has concluded. S&P notes the total construction cost for the Florence project was about $275 million, which it says will reduce near-term capital intensity and support the company's transition to stronger cash generation.
S&P highlighted the support provided by higher copper prices this year. The agency referenced an average copper price near $6.00 per pound, an increase of roughly 30% to 35% versus the 2025 average, and said it assumes favorable copper price conditions will persist over the coming years. Those price assumptions are linked to demand drivers cited by the agency, including expansion of renewable energy, power grid modernization, growth in the electric vehicle sector and increased data center activity.
Florence is an in-situ copper recovery operation that yields copper cathode without conventional open-pit mining methods, a factor S&P incorporated into its operational and cost assessments.
Despite the upgrade, S&P indicated it could revert the outlook to stable within 12 months if adjusted debt to EBITDA remains at or above 3.0x. The agency specifically flagged two scenarios that could produce such an outcome: difficulties completing the production ramp at Florence or a period of weaker sustained copper prices. Conversely, S&P said it could consider a further upgrade within 12 months if Florence reaches full production while delivering cost performance in line with S&P's estimates, with adjusted debt to EBITDA staying below 3.0x and free operating cash flow remaining positive.