Instacart on Thursday issued third-quarter guidance that exceeded analyst forecasts, saying rising consumer demand for online grocery deliveries and a focus on affordability have supported stronger transaction volumes and profitability. The company said this backdrop helped lift its shares by about 10% in after-hours trading.
In outlining expectations for the quarter, Instacart forecast gross transaction value - the metric reflecting the value of products sold at prices shown on its platform - to land between $10.30 billion and $10.55 billion. That range sits above analysts' average estimate of $10.21 billion, based on data compiled by LSEG. For adjusted core profit, the company provided guidance of $320 million to $340 million, marginally higher than the consensus estimate of $318.8 million.
These forecasts follow second-quarter results in which Instacart posted GTV of $10.35 billion versus the $10.20 billion estimate and reported adjusted core profit of $313 million, above the $298 million analysts had expected.
Advertising and affordability
Instacart said its advertising business - operated under the formal name Maplebear - grew 16% in the second quarter to $297 million. Management has emphasized that increased customer engagement across both its marketplace and enterprise platforms creates additional value for retailers, brands and shoppers. CEO Chris Rogers said, "We’re attracting and engaging more customers across our marketplace and enterprise platform, which creates more value for retailers, brands and shoppers."
Responding to a challenging consumer environment marked by sticky inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty, Instacart has sought to capture smaller grocery baskets. Last year, the company reduced the minimum order value for its Instacart+ loyalty program to $10 to better serve shoppers seeking lower-ticket purchases as competitors pushed into similar segments.
Market reaction and peer activity
The upbeat guidance for GTV and adjusted core profit coincides with broader strength in delivery demand. Peer DoorDash also provided positive third-quarter outlooks for gross order value and core profit the prior day, underscoring resilience across the on-demand delivery segment.
Instacart's guidance and recent quarterly outperformance reflect both continued consumer adoption of rapid-delivery services for convenience and value-seeking behavior that favors lower-cost purchase options. At the same time, the company is navigating competitive pressures and the potential variability of advertising revenue as it seeks to sustain engagement and growth.