U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that talks to reach an agreement with Iran could "take a few days," dimming hopes that the conflict might be concluded immediately. His comments came a day after U.S. forces launched strikes in southern Iran that Washington described as defensive measures.
Rubio, speaking to reporters aboard his plane in Jaipur, India, characterised the recent U.S. strikes as actions against targets that included boats allegedly attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites. He underscored the strategic imperative of keeping the Strait of Hormuz navigable, saying the strait "has to be open 'one way or the other.' 'The straits have to be open, they’re going to be open one way or the other, so they need to be open,'" he said.
Despite a ceasefire that has been in effect since early April, U.S. Central Command said on Monday it had carried out fresh strikes that were designed "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces." The statement framed the operations as defensive steps intended to reduce immediate risks to U.S. personnel.
Iranian news agencies reported on Monday that Tehran had downed a "hostile" stealth drone using a new air defence system, though officials did not specify the drone's origin. The Iranian announcement came amid the flurry of military activity and diplomatic engagement.
The U.S. strikes coincided with the arrival of Iran’s top negotiator and its foreign minister in Doha, where they were meeting Qatar’s prime minister for talks on a possible agreement with the United States to end the three-month-old war, an official briefed on the visit said. According to that official, the Doha discussions were focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and on Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Rubio told reporters in New Delhi earlier that the United States intended to give diplomacy "every chance to succeed" before considering whether to address the situation with Iran "in another way." He said there was a "pretty solid thing on the table," referring to negotiations over reopening the strait and a "very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter."
In a lengthy post on his social media account on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were going "nicely," while warning that fresh attacks could follow if negotiations failed. "It will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all," he wrote.
Regional hostilities showed signs of continuing pressure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel would intensify strikes against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Israel’s military shortly thereafter said it was attacking Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley and other areas.
Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire in mid-April, but Israel has continued airstrikes it described as acts of self-defence against Hezbollah, which was not a party to the truce.
Doha talks and central issues
The official who briefed reporters on the Iranians’ trip to Doha said the discussions also touched on the possible release of frozen Iranian funds, with Iran’s central bank governor present to address that element as part of a potential final deal. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said previously that nuclear issues would only be negotiated after a framework accord was agreed.
Baghaei reiterated remarks about the Strait of Hormuz, saying the potential deal contained no specific details on day-to-day management of the waterway. He said Iran would not charge tolls for ships to pass but that there would be a cost for services offered, such as navigation assistance and measures to protect the environment, to be set out in a protocol agreed with Oman, which lies on the opposite shore of the waterway.
Citing a regional diplomatic source, Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported that the United States and Iran were discussing a plan under which the strait would be reopened about 30 days after a deal to end hostilities was reached. The report adds context to the negotiating agenda but does not alter the fact that the strait’s current operational status remains constrained.
Impact on shipping and markets
Since strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been sharply reduced. Only a few dozen vessels have been transiting the passage compared with the 125 to 140 vessels that previously passed daily, according to reporting on movements through the waterway.
That disruption has contributed to a rise in oil prices and increased costs for fuel, fertiliser and food. In early Asian trade on Tuesday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was reported as being up slightly from Monday’s last traded price but down 5.5% from Friday’s close.
The combination of ongoing talks in Doha, recent U.S. defensive strikes, Iran’s air defence claim regarding a "hostile" stealth drone, and continued Israeli operations against Hezbollah means diplomatic and military developments remain tightly coupled. Negotiators in Doha are addressing a narrow set of practical and technical issues - the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz, potential management protocols involving Oman, Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the prospect of releasing frozen funds - but Rubio’s comment that a deal "could take a few days" signals that finalizing those arrangements is not immediate.