OPEC+ is poised to approve a limited increase in official production quotas for September of roughly 188,000 barrels per day and then suspend further increases for the remainder of the year, sources familiar with the matter said.
The group’s seven core members - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman - have been incrementally raising monthly quotas for most of the current year. Those scheduled upward adjustments have often not translated into equivalent output because disruptions linked to the conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine affected flows from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan.
Following the planned September adjustment, delegates say the alliance is likely to pause any additional rises in quotas for the rest of the year. The halt reflects both the need to finish a phased rollback of previous voluntary cuts and the prospect of challenging negotiations as members debate the distribution of any extra supply.
The September increase would mark the completion of a gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million barrels-per-day supply cut that was agreed in 2023. That 2023 agreement took place when the group still included the United Arab Emirates, which subsequently exited the organisation in May.
Separately, OPEC+ is conducting a review of each member’s oil production capacity to establish the baselines that will be used for 2027 quota calculations. Those capacity assessments will form the foundation from which future quota allocations are determined.
Even with the September rise, the pause would mean that about 2 million bpd of OPEC+ cuts, tracing back to decisions made in 2022, would remain effectively in place. The group will keep those reductions until it reaches agreement on how to distribute additional supply among members. Some countries within the alliance, notably Iraq, are pushing for higher individual quotas to reflect increases in their production capacity.
Context and implications
The immediate change is modest in volume, but the move to pause increases highlights ongoing internal negotiation over capacity baselines and quota allocation. The outcome of those discussions will determine whether and how the remaining reductions are eased and how extra output is shared across member states.