Commodities May 19, 2026 07:56 PM

Oil Drifts Lower as U.S. Signals Progress in Talks with Iran

WTI slips modestly amid diplomatic signals and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions; market eyes U.S. inventory data

By Sofia Navarro
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Oil prices edged down in early Asian trading after U.S. officials signaled progress in negotiations with Iran. July West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.3% to $98.88 a barrel by 19:50 ET (23:50 GMT), following a roughly 1% drop on Tuesday. Market moves were tempered by continued supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and a larger-than-expected inventory draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute.

Oil Drifts Lower as U.S. Signals Progress in Talks with Iran
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Key Points

  • WTI July futures fell 0.3% to $98.88 a barrel by 19:50 ET (23:50 GMT) after a roughly 1% decline on Tuesday - relevant to energy and financial markets.
  • U.S. officials flagged progress in talks with Iran; President Trump said he had postponed an attack and that negotiations were going well, adding the war in Iran will end "very quickly" - relevant to geopolitics and commodity risk pricing.
  • Supply disruptions persist in the Strait of Hormuz, with traffic at a fraction of pre-war levels and impacting about 20% of global oil supply - relevant to shipping and energy sectors.
  • U.S. extended a sanctions waiver on seaborne Russian oil to help countries secure supply - relevant to international oil trade flows and energy security.

Oil prices moved slightly lower in early Asian trade on Wednesday as markets weighed signs of diplomatic movement between the United States and Iran against persistent supply disruptions in a key shipping lane.

West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery was down 0.3% at $98.88 a barrel by 19:50 ET (23:50 GMT). The contract had declined about 1% on Tuesday.


Diplomatic signals

Prices eased after U.S. officials indicated progress in talks with Tehran. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had postponed an attack on Iran and described negotiations as going well. He added that the war in Iran will end "very quickly." Vice President JD Vance reiterated that he believed Iran wanted to make a deal.


Supply-side constraints

Despite the softer tone from Washington, losses in crude were limited by continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the waterway remained at a fraction of pre-war levels, a situation that affects about 20% of the worlds oil supply.

In addition, the U.S. on Monday extended a sanctions waiver on seaborne Russian oil, a move intended to allow countries vulnerable to oil import disruptions to secure supply.


Negotiation positions and regional demands

State media reported that Iran's latest peace proposal calls for an end to hostilities on all fronts, the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, and reparations for war-related damage. The U.S. has largely rejected Iran's earlier proposals, maintaining that curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions remains a central objective of any agreement.


Inventory data in focus

Market attention is turning to upcoming U.S. inventory figures for further clarity on stockpile trends amid the ongoing supply disruptions. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a 9.1 million barrel (mb) draw last week, substantially larger than expectations for a 3.4 mb draw.

With diplomatic signals and supply reports both influencing sentiment, traders are awaiting additional data and developments to gauge whether the recent price moves will continue or reverse.

Risks

  • Ongoing uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran negotiations - outcomes and timing remain unclear, affecting oil price direction and energy-sector planning.
  • Continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - sustained below-normal traffic could keep upward pressure on prices and disrupt supply chains for energy and shipping sectors.
  • Uncertain trajectory of U.S.-Iran bargaining positions - the U.S. has largely rejected earlier Iranian proposals on nuclear-related demands, creating ambiguity in how quickly hostilities and supply risks might be resolved.

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