Commodities May 20, 2026 08:26 PM

Oil climbs as U.S. signals possible strikes on Iran amid fragile negotiations

Markets react to Washington's warning and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. inventories show a notable weekly draw

By Nina Shah

Oil prices advanced in early Asian trading after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States was prepared to strike Iran if Tehran did not accept a peace deal, while also indicating a willingness to wait for additional days. Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures recovered from recent losses as geopolitical tensions and disruptions to Strait of Hormuz traffic continued to influence supply dynamics. U.S. crude stockpiles showed an outsized weekly decline as Washington raised exports to offset shortfalls linked to the narrowing flow through Hormuz.

Oil climbs as U.S. signals possible strikes on Iran amid fragile negotiations

Key Points

  • Brent and WTI futures rose - Brent July up 0.5% to $105.53/bbl; WTI up 0.9% to $94.83/bbl by 20:05 ET (00:05 GMT). These moves reflect market sensitivity to geopolitical signals and supply disruptions.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic remains severely reduced - only two Chinese tankers were recorded crossing on Wednesday, with overall flows a fraction of pre-war levels; the strait accounts for roughly 20% of global oil shipments.
  • U.S. inventories fell sharply in the most recent weekly data - Washington increased oil exports to help mitigate supply shortfalls caused by restricted Hormuz throughput.

Oil futures moved higher in early Asian trade after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Washington stood ready to carry out strikes against Iran if the country refused to agree to a peace deal. At the same time, the president said he could afford to delay further military action, noting earlier signs of progress in talks with Tehran.

By 20:05 ET (00:05 GMT), Brent crude for July delivery was trading 0.5% higher at $105.53 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.9% to $94.83 a barrel. Both contracts regained ground following two days of losses that had been driven by earlier comments pointing to negotiation progress.

The rebound followed mixed signals from Washington. Although the White House flagged movement in discussions with Iran, later remarks warned that the U.S. was prepared to proceed with strikes and described the situation as "right on the borderline." The president also said he could wait "a few days" before deciding on any additional action.

Tehran responded to the U.S. warnings with a rebuke, cautioning against renewed attacks by the United States and Israel and saying such measures could significantly escalate the conflict. In parallel, Iran established a new "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to oversee traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, having previously set out plans to impose tolls on vessels using the channel.

The Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed to normal traffic. While data showed two Chinese oil tankers had successfully passed through the channel on Wednesday, overall traffic was still only a fraction of its pre-war level. The strait is estimated to carry roughly 20% of the world’s oil, and its effective closure has been a primary factor disrupting global supply and lifting prices.

U.S. oil inventory figures released on Wednesday pointed to an outsized weekly draw in crude stocks. Officials attributed part of that decline to Washington increasing oil exports to help fill supply gaps created by the reduced throughput in Hormuz.


Market participants cited both the renewed threat of military action and continued shipping disruptions as key influences behind the uptick in oil prices. The sequence of alternating signals - negotiations on the one hand and readiness for strikes on the other - contributed to volatility in futures trading.

Risks

  • Escalation of military action - renewed U.S. or Israeli strikes against Iran could significantly intensify the conflict and further disrupt oil supply, affecting energy and shipping sectors.
  • Prolonged closure or restricted flow through the Strait of Hormuz - continued limited traffic would sustain upward pressure on crude prices and weigh on sectors sensitive to energy costs, including transportation and manufacturing.
  • Policy and communication uncertainty - alternating signals on negotiations versus readiness for strikes may drive increased volatility in oil markets and affect market-sensitive financial assets such as energy stocks and commodity-linked securities.

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