Northwest European gasoline refinery margins fell to $21.25 per barrel on Wednesday, even as concerns about fuel supplies related to the ongoing Middle East conflict remained on market participants' minds.
During Wednesday's trading session, the Argus window recorded trades of E5 gasoline barges totaling about 24,000 metric tons. The sellers in those transactions were BP and Exxon, and the buyer was TotalEnergies. The session saw no trades of E10 gasoline barges.
An analysis cited in the market noted that recent U.S. policy moves have had little effect on high domestic gasoline prices. President Donald Trump's waivers that permit foreign-flagged vessels to move oil and fuel between U.S. ports have not materially reduced retail gasoline costs, according to a Reuters analysis referenced in market commentary. The limited impact was attributed to elevated shipping rates and the relatively small volumes of fuel moved under the waivers.
Policy action in Asia also intersected with refinery economics. Japan's industry ministry announced that the benchmark used to calculate gasoline price subsidies will switch back to Dubai crude from Brent crude starting next week. That change follows a narrowing of the price gap between those two crude benchmarks.
On the retail side, TotalEnergies said it will maintain its cap on fuel prices at service stations in France through June while the Middle East crisis persists, keeping price controls in place for the immediate term.
Physical flows data added context to the pricing and policy developments. Kpler data showed that EU-27 and UK gasoline and blending component exports averaged 788,000 barrels per day so far this month, down from 961,000 bpd in April. The decline in exports adds to signs of moderation in regional outbound flows.
Market participants will be watching how the interplay of policy adjustments, trade volumes and shipping costs influence refining margins and retail prices in the weeks ahead.