An AtlasIntel poll released on the last weekend before Colombia's May 31 presidential election finds a close first-round race but a markedly different outcome in simulated second-round matchups.
The survey, conducted between May 18 and 21 and based on 4,531 interviews, placed the ruling party's candidate Ivan Cepeda at 38.7% of voter intention in the first round, with right-wing businessman Abelardo De La Espriella close behind on 37.3%.
Despite Cepeda's slim lead in the initial ballot, the poll estimated that De La Espriella would outperform Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff, taking 50.0% of the vote to Cepeda's 41.3%.
In the final week before voters head to the polls, AtlasIntel's figures show De La Espriella closing the gap with a four percentage-point gain since the firm's prior survey, while Cepeda rose by one percentage point over the same interval. Paloma Valencia, representing the right-wing Centro Democrático party, trailed with 14.3% of voter intention, a decline of just over two percentage points from the previous poll.
The poll also modelled a potential runoff between Valencia and Cepeda and found Valencia leading 44.6% to Cepeda's 41.5% in that scenario.
Contrasting policy agendas
The three leading candidates present diverging policy programs that would shift the country's direction depending on the victor.
- Ivan Cepeda has pledged to continue the trajectory set by the current president, emphasizing deeper social reforms aimed at reducing inequality and pursuing peace negotiations with illegal armed groups.
- Abelardo De La Espriella has said he would halt peace negotiations, adopt a tougher stance on crime and drug trafficking, introduce incentives for private investors and entrepreneurs, and expand activity in the mining and energy sectors.
- Paloma Valencia has proposed enlarging the armed forces and national police, launching offensives against criminal gangs and guerrillas, promoting business growth and implementing tax cuts.
The opposition pledges outlined by De La Espriella and Valencia would represent a significant reversal from policies implemented by the current administration. President Gustavo Petro, a former M19 member, stopped issuing new oil and gas exploration contracts as part of a move toward greater sustainability. Petro's four-year term concludes in August.
If no candidate secures an absolute majority of valid votes from an electorate of about 41 million people, a second-round runoff will be held on June 21 between the two highest-scoring candidates.
With one week to go until the first round, the AtlasIntel poll highlights not only a tight contest for first place but also divergent second-round dynamics depending on which candidates advance, underscoring potential shifts in policy affecting security forces, natural resources and investment incentives.