JP Morgan has revised down its outlook for global refined zinc production in 2026, cutting its forecast by nearly 300,000 metric tons. The reduction tightens the global balance by roughly the same volume and leaves the world zinc market projected to register a surplus of about 130,000 tons for the year.
The bank cites a pullback in mine supply growth as a key factor behind the weaker production picture. JP Morgan now anticipates mine supply growth in 2026 will decline by 5% year-on-year. That outlook reflects a combination of operational disruptions and guidance misses reported by several major producers located in Sweden, the U.S., and Peru.
Market prices have already shown some reaction to the revised supply view. Three-month zinc futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.3% to $3,540 per metric ton on Friday, a near-term move that sits within the range of price expectations outlined by the bank.
Looking ahead, JP Morgan expects LME zinc prices to average between $3,400 and $3,500 per metric ton through the remainder of 2026. The bank's forecast balances the reduced refined output and lower mine growth against overall demand conditions, which it describes as weak.
The combination of a nearly 300,000 metric ton downgrade in refined production and an anticipated 5% drop in mine supply growth underpins JP Morgan's assessment that zinc prices will remain elevated for the rest of 2026. At the same time, the bank's projection of a roughly 130,000 ton surplus indicates the market is not expected to move into a deficit on its current assumptions.
This outlook highlights the sensitivity of the zinc market to production disruptions and the degree to which misses against producer guidance can alter global supply estimates. The revised figures and price range provide a framework for market participants to assess near-term risks around supply availability and price levels through next year.