Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price projections and flagged a materially tighter market beyond U.S. borders, driven by both supply shortfalls and trade flow shifts related to tariffs, the bank said in a note.
Market balance revision
The commodities team at Goldman now projects copper deficits outside the United States of roughly 640,000 tonnes in 2026 and about 170,000 tonnes in 2027, a notable deterioration versus its earlier outlook. The bank said global mine supply has been reduced by around 350,000 tonnes in each of those years.
The supply downgrade is primarily linked to slower-than-expected recoveries at two major mines, Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, where Goldman does not expect full recovery until 2028. The firm also noted that scrap metal is not compensating for the lost mine production, citing weaker scrap availability within China.
Role of U.S. imports and inventories
Goldman pointed to heavy U.S. imports in the first half of 2026 as a factor that has continued to draw metal out of the non-U.S. system. The bank now anticipates U.S. inventories will increase by approximately 900,000 tonnes this year, reaching around 1.8 million tonnes by the end of the year. That compares with inventories of roughly 100,000 tonnes at the start of 2025, according to the note.
Price forecasts and scenarios
Reflecting the tighter non-U.S. balance, Goldman raised its copper price forecasts across the curve. The bank now expects copper to average $13,349 per tonne in 2026 and $13,800 per tonne in 2027. Those numbers were revised up from prior estimates of $12,131 and $10,750 per tonne, respectively.
Goldman highlighted U.S. tariff policy as the key near-term variable, with the bank expecting an announcement on tariff outcomes this month. The bank wrote: "A Jan'27 tariff introduction would likely pull forward more U.S. imports, further tightening the non-U.S. market and potentially pushing LME prices above $14,000 per tonne in 2H'26, before easing in 2027 as flows normalise."
By contrast, Goldman said a definitive no-tariff outcome could reverse the 2027 balance back into surplus and exert downward pressure on prices toward about $12,800 per tonne, which the analyst characterises as copper's fundamental fair value.
Equity positioning
Against the revised commodity outlook, Goldman reiterated Buy ratings on Lundin Mining and Antofagasta as preferred copper-exposed equities. For Lundin, Goldman highlighted a valuation around 1x price-to-NAV compared with sector peers trading at roughly 1.5x to 2x, and noted copper now accounts for 85% of the company's total revenue.
Antofagasta was described as "one of the few scalable, pure European copper gold equities," with production growth supported by its Centinela and Pelambres assets. Goldman increased price targets for both stocks by 18% in line with its more constructive copper view.
Note - All figures, forecasts and quotes above are taken from Goldman Sachs' recent commodities team note as reported in the firm's update on copper market balances and company assessments.