TULIA, Texas, May 20 - Standing in a field of sparse, stunted wheat, a West Texas grower ran his hand down a fissure in the dry soil wide enough to admit his whole fist. Last autumn he planted a crop that never received the rains needed to flourish. With harvest looming, he is hoping an insurance adjuster will rule it a total loss so he can avoid the expense of running fuel-guzzling combines over what may amount to little return.
Across the U.S. Plains - from Texas and Oklahoma to Kansas, South Dakota and Nebraska - farmers are confronting a confluence of pressures: a resurgent drought that has shriveled yields, and a spike in the cost of farm diesel and commercial fertilizers after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February. Those input-cost increases are coming at a time when many operations are already thinly capitalized and coping with the market effects of earlier trade policies.
Data cited by a state farm group show the magnitude of the price moves. The Kentucky Farm Bureau, in prepared testimony to a U.S. Senate agriculture committee, said farm diesel prices have climbed 72% since the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Prices for urea - a widely used fertilizer produced in the Gulf - rose 55%, and another nitrogen-based fertilizer increased by 33%, the group reported in its testimony.
Farmers say the higher prices are forcing hard choices. Some planted last autumn and watched crops wither in the drought; others are rethinking plans to apply fertilizer to fields already in the ground. Some are delaying planting or choosing to forgo fertilizer this spring rather than risk spending large sums on inputs if yields remain uncertain because of the ongoing dry conditions.
"There’s fuel, there’s drought, there’s fertilizer," one farmer said, listing his principal challenges. "I’ve got three strikes. Am I out?"
Drought severity and crop outlook
Texas remains a leading producer - third-largest for wheat, second for sorghum and first for cotton - and the impacts of this dry spell are visible across its plains. Around the Tulia area, gusting winds sweep over brown fields punctuated by the remnants of last seasons crops: dirty clumps of cotton and brittle sorghum stalks. In many locations, hard red winter wheat - the variety used for bread - is on pace to be the smallest U.S. crop since 1957, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
One grower said he is watching his wheat "and just waiting for it to die." The reach of the drought is broad: the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor report shows more than 60% of the continental United States is experiencing drought. That is up from 43% at the start of 2026 and 33% a year earlier. The drought affects an area that is home to roughly 153 million people.
In parts of Oklahoma, agronomists say it may already be too late for rain to meaningfully recover wheat in the hardest-hit areas. "Rain can help preserve what’s left, but it won’t reverse the damage already done," said an Oklahoma State University agronomist in late April.
South Dakota extension specialists reported farmers were reconsidering whether to apply fertilizer to wheat planted last fall because of the dual pressures of elevated prices and poor growing conditions.
Input costs, advance buying and regional differences
Growers in the Plains say the recent jump in input prices erodes margin and, in some cases, wipes out benefits they had received from government aid programs designed to offset trade-related losses earlier in the decade. One Oklahoma producer who grows wheat, sorghum and soybeans said higher input costs had effectively negated the relief provided by a past aid package.
U.S. Department of Agriculture leadership acknowledged that producers are under strain. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the sector is facing significant price increases while the farm economy is struggling. She also noted in a social media post that roughly 80% of U.S. farmers had already locked in their supplies last fall, before the onset of the conflict that closed the Strait of Hormuz.
That pattern of advance purchasing varies considerably by region, according to a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation. The Farm Bureau found that while many farmers in the Midwest did prebook fertilizer for 2026, pre-purchases were not as widespread in the Northeast or the South. The organization explained that Midwest farmers often rotate between corn and soybeans and tend to make purchase decisions well in advance of planting. In contrast, many Southern operations lack on-farm storage for fertilizer, reducing the prevalence of advance buying.
The Farm Bureau survey also found that most farmers said they could not afford all the fertilizer required for the growing season. The USDA said it was continuing to review data on fertilizer usage.
Farm-level decisions and financial strain
On the ground, individual producers described stark trade-offs. One West Texas farmer said he did not pre-purchase fertilizer for a sorghum planting scheduled for this month and likely will use none at all given the combination of high prices and the drought-reduced potential yields.
Another farmer, whose winter wheat yields were decimated - from an expected 80 bushels per acre to around 18-20 bushels - said he might forgo buying fertilizer for 2,400 acres of cotton entirely. "How can I go out and be financially prudent and book this high-dollar fertilizer when I don’t even know if I’m going to make a crop?" he asked.
Yet another grower said he had not pre-bought fertilizer and by April was confronted with an increase in price to $558 per ton from $402 per ton in February. He said he planned to continue spring planting because farming is his livelihood and a family tradition, but that he would apply fertilizer as sparingly as possible.
Several farmers said their strategy in recent years had been to offset rising input costs by pursuing higher yields. The drought undermined that plan, and the more recent jump in fertilizer prices has further dimmed that path to improved margins. One producer said he was relying on faith, family and regular exercise to get through the season, adding: "I hope the good Lord takes care of us."
Government response and industry statements
When asked about fertilizer costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the Trump administration had been focused on encouraging greater domestic production of affordable fertilizer. The USDA also indicated it is continuing to evaluate data on fertilizer usage.
Farm groups and industry observers say the confluence of drought and sharply higher input expenses is prompting a range of responses from producers: some are trying to conserve fertilizer and fuel, others are hoping for insurance payouts on failed crops, and many are weighing the economics of planting versus leaving fields fallow.
Outlook and immediate choices
For many producers across the Plains, the immediate calculus is stark and personal: whether to spend now on fuel and fertilizer in hopes of a recoverable crop, or to accept smaller or no returns and preserve cash. With substantial portions of the continental U.S. affected by drought and with fertilizer and diesel prices elevated, the season ahead looks likely to be defined by risk management decisions and constrained inputs.
Producers said they are making those choices with limited visibility: some had locked in supplies before the conflict and rising prices, while others are deciding in real time whether to commit funds to inputs for crops that may already be compromised by drought.
As the growing season progresses, the combination of shrinking yields and rising costs could determine the financial prospects of individual farms and the degree of reliance on insurance and federal support.
Reporting on conditions in multiple Plains states collected statements from growers, university extension specialists, farm organizations and USDA officials describing drought impacts and recent input price increases.