Commodities May 23, 2026 10:48 AM

Diplomatic Momentum Reported as Iran, U.S. and Pakistan Move Toward Ending Three-Month War

Mediated talks in Tehran focus on a 14-point framework and key security demands with parties expecting possible developments within days

By Ajmal Hussain

Iran, the United States and Pakistan said they have made progress in mediated discussions aimed at ending nearly three months of conflict. Meetings in Tehran between Iranian negotiators and Pakistan's army chief, and public statements from U.S. and Iranian officials, indicate narrowing differences on a memorandum of understanding centered on a 14-point proposal. Key sticking points include a U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping, the risk of renewed U.S. attacks, and the situation in Lebanon.

Diplomatic Momentum Reported as Iran, U.S. and Pakistan Move Toward Ending Three-Month War

Key Points

  • Diplomatic progress reported as Iran, the U.S. and Pakistan engage in mediated talks focused on a 14-point framework - impacts diplomacy and geopolitical risk assessment.
  • The Strait of Hormuz closure and the U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping have upended global energy markets and shipping operations - impacts energy and maritime sectors.
  • Public statements emphasize security demands including non-proliferation and limitations on Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities - impacts defence and commodity markets tied to geopolitical risk.

Overview

Officials from Iran, the United States and Pakistan reported on May 23 that talks intended to bring an end to almost three months of hostilities have seen progress. The discussions, mediated by Pakistan, concentrated on moving toward a memorandum of understanding that could form the basis for a settlement.

Diplomatic activity in Tehran

Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi held talks with Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir in Tehran. State media said Munir also met President Masoud Pezeshkian before departing the capital. The Pakistani army described negotiations carried out over the preceding 24 hours as producing "encouraging" progress toward a final agreement.

The discussions reportedly focused on a 14-point document that Iran has presented as the principal framework for the negotiations. Messages exchanged between the parties were also part of the dialogue, according to officials involved in the talks.

Public statements and timelines

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking while visiting India, said the United States has observed some progress and suggested the possibility of an announcement within a short timeframe. He told reporters that "There’s been some progress done, some progress made, even as I speak to you now, there’s some work being done. There is a chance that, whether it’s later today, tomorrow, in a couple days, we may have something to say."

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei framed the conversations as moving toward fewer disputes but cautioned that unresolved issues remain. He said: "The trend this week has been towards a reduction in disputes, but there are still issues that need to be discussed through mediators. We will have to wait and see where the situation ends in the next three or four days."

Points of contention

Baghaei identified the U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping as a significant concern. He stressed that Tehran’s priority is to eliminate the threat of new U.S. attacks and to address the ongoing conflict in Lebanon, where Hezbollah - allied with Iran - is engaged with Israeli forces in the south.

Secretary Rubio reiterated core U.S. demands echoed by President Trump, stating: "Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The straits need to be open without tolls. They need to turn over their enriched uranium." These demands reflect the U.S. focus on non-proliferation, open navigation through strategic waterways, and restrictions on Iran’s nuclear material.

Iran’s stance and military posture

Qalibaf emphasized that Iran will seek to defend its "legitimate rights" both through diplomatic channels and on the battlefield. He expressed deep skepticism toward the other side’s trustworthiness, saying Iran "could not trust 'a party that has no honesty at all'" - a charge Iran has made previously.

Qalibaf further said that Iran’s armed forces used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities and warned that should the United States "foolishly restart the war" the response would be "more forceful and bitter" than at the start of the conflict.

Political and strategic context

Pakistan’s mediation effort is aimed at narrowing the gap between Iran and the United States after weeks of fighting that have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and affected global energy markets. The waterway has been closed to most shipping despite a fragile ceasefire, a development that has produced significant market uncertainty.

U.S. President Donald Trump, citing concerns related to Iran among other reasons, said on Friday he would remain in Washington and would not attend his son's wedding that weekend.

Military capabilities under discussion

Despite the conflict, Iran is reported to have preserved a stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium and maintained missile, drone and proxy capabilities that the United States and Israel have said they seek to limit. These elements remain central to the negotiation dynamics as both security guarantees and military constraints are debated.

What to watch next

Officials on all sides indicated they expect further movement over the coming days. Negotiators and mediators will need to resolve outstanding points in the proposed framework and address the prioritized security concerns before any formal memorandum can be finalized.


Reporting in this piece is limited to statements and developments disclosed by officials and state media; the ultimate outcome of the talks remains uncertain pending further announcements.

Risks

  • Outstanding issues remain in negotiations and could prevent a final memorandum of understanding - risk to diplomatic resolution and stability in regional security.
  • Potential for renewed hostilities if talks collapse, with Iran warning that a U.S. restart of the war would trigger stronger retaliation - risk to energy supplies and military escalation.
  • Continued closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping could sustain volatility in global energy markets and shipping routes.

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