Options traders are pricing in the potential for a roughly 13% share-price move for Klarna Group Plc (STO:KLARNA) when the Swedish buy now, pay later company reports earnings on May 14 before markets open, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.
The options-implied move represents the market's expectation of volatility around the release. In Klarna's case, the implied magnitude ahead of the May 14 report is similar to the range priced in before prior earnings releases.
Looking at the company's two most recent earnings announcements provides context for that implied figure. On February 19, Klarna shares declined 27.5% even though options had been pricing in a move of 12.7% for that announcement. Earlier, on November 18, the stock fell 13.8% against an options-implied move of 12.9%.
Both prior occasions produced actual price changes that exceeded the magnitude anticipated by options trading, and in both cases the resulting movements were declines that outpaced the projected volatility.
Investors and market participants who monitor options-implied moves often use that metric as a gauge of expected short-term volatility around scheduled corporate events. For Klarna, the implied volatility ahead of the May 14 report is notable because the company has recently experienced larger downside moves on earnings than the options market had implied.
Key takeaways
- Options imply a potential share-price move of about 13% for Klarna on May 14, with the report scheduled before the market opens.
- Klarna's last two earnings releases produced declines larger than the corresponding options-implied moves: a 27.5% fall on February 19 (implied 12.7%) and a 13.8% drop on November 18 (implied 12.9%).
- Sectors affected include consumer finance and fintech, given Klarna's role as a buy now, pay later provider; market volatility around the report may also have implications for short-term trading in related payments and consumer-lending instruments.
Risks and uncertainties
- Actual share-price movement could exceed the options-implied figure, as occurred in the two most recent earnings releases - a risk for equity holders and traders in Klarna-related instruments.
- The company has experienced downside surprises on earnings in prior reports, creating uncertainty for investors reliant on options-implied volatility as a guide to potential moves.
- Near-term volatility around the May 14 report could influence trading activity in the broader consumer finance and fintech segments, creating execution and liquidity risks for market participants.
Observers will be watching the May 14 release to see whether actual price action aligns with the options market's expectations or again exceeds them on the downside, as it has in the two most recent reporting periods.