Citi has revised its valuation outlooks for two major chipmakers and released a new forecast for the server CPU market, saying the segment could expand from $29.3 billion in 2025 to $131.5 billion by 2030. The bank attributes the anticipated expansion largely to rising demand for agentic AI applications.
The bank’s framework splits the CPU opportunity into three distinct categories: general-purpose CPUs, AI head nodes, and agentic CPU applications. Under Citi’s projections, general-purpose CPUs are set to reach $50.9 billion by 2030, growing at a 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). AI head nodes are modeled to achieve $21.1 billion by 2030 with a 21% CAGR. The fastest-growing segment in Citi’s view is agentic CPUs, which the bank estimates will swell at a 185% CAGR to $59.4 billion and account for 45% of the total CPU market by the end of the decade.
Those numbers place Citi’s 2030 TAM projection above prior estimates cited by industry participants; ARM had previously forecast a $100 billion addressable market by 2030 and AMD had estimated $120 billion, both of which are below Citi’s new $131.5 billion figure.
On competitive positioning, Citi expects Intel to hold roughly 47% of the CPU market by 2030, AMD to capture 34%, and ARM along with other suppliers to make up the remaining 19%.
Following its modeling work, the bank raised its price target on Intel to $130 and increased its data center sales forecasts to reflect the revised CPU market assumptions. Citi also flagged potential additional upside at Intel from its ASIC business, calling out the Mount Evans IPU specifically - noting that the product is used by Google and extends to Anthropic.
AMD’s price objective was raised to $460, again driven by the bank’s updated data center outlook. Citi’s research team wrote that they "believe AMD has won Anthropic as a customer for MI450 AI accelerator, based on our discussions with industry contacts, and expect AMD to announce it at Advancing AI day in July." The analysts added that AMD "could be the primary beneficiary of the CPU renaissance given its performance leadership and capacity allocation at TSMC." At the same time, Citi said it will be watching for the release and market reception of AMD’s next-generation MI450 GPU product and the Helios racks.
The revisions reflect a view that agentic AI will materially reshape demand patterns within server infrastructure, lifting the addressable market significantly over the coming five years. Citi’s segmentation highlights where the bank expects value to accumulate - with agentic CPUs representing nearly half of the TAM by 2030 under its base case.
Investors and market participants should note that Citi’s updated price targets and data center estimates stem directly from its revised CPU TAM model and the market-share assumptions embedded in that framework.
Market context and implications
The bank’s modeling and subsequent target increases point to a potentially meaningful reallocation of value across semiconductor suppliers, particularly within the data-center and AI infrastructure ecosystem. The outlook affects chip designers, foundry allocation decisions, and buyers of server-class processors as demand for specialized AI compute increases.