Currencies May 4, 2026 01:52 PM

Canadian dollar slips as U.S.-Iran tensions push investors toward safe-haven dollar

Strait of Hormuz developments lift the U.S. dollar and send crude oil sharply higher, weighing on the loonie

By Marcus Reed
Canadian dollar slips as U.S.-Iran tensions push investors toward safe-haven dollar

The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Monday after an escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The safe-haven U.S. dollar strengthened broadly while oil prices rose markedly; the Bank of Canada has said high oil could force consecutive rate hikes if it feeds inflation, and markets are pricing in further BoC tightening by mid-2026.

Key Points

  • Canadian dollar traded 0.2% lower at 1.3615 per U.S. dollar, or 73.45 U.S. cents, after moving between 1.3582 and 1.3619.
  • U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers entered the Gulf to break an Iranian blockade and two U.S. merchant ships transited the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's claim it prevented a U.S. warship from entering the Gulf.
  • Brent crude rose 5.6% to above $114 per barrel and U.S. WTI was 3.6% higher at more than $105; the Bank of Canada said sustained high oil could lead to consecutive rate hikes.

The Canadian dollar eased versus the U.S. dollar on Monday as heightened friction between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz pushed traders toward safe-haven assets.

The currency traded 0.2% lower at 1.3615 per U.S. dollar, equivalent to 73.45 U.S. cents, after moving in a session range between 1.3582 and 1.3619. On Friday the loonie reached an intraday high of 1.3548, its strongest level since March 10.

U.S. military officials said two Navy guided-missile destroyers entered the Gulf to break what they described as an Iranian blockade, and that two U.S. merchant vessels transited the strait. The move followed Iran's statement that it had prevented a U.S. warship from entering the Gulf.

Markets reacted to the developments by favoring the U.S. dollar. The safe-haven currency rose against a basket of major peers as oil prices climbed sharply. Brent futures gained 5.6% to trade above $114 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was 3.6% higher at more than $105.

"The trend remains the same this week with negative headlines creating USD strength while positive developments boost the loonie," said Darren Richardson, chief operating officer at Vantry Capital, in a note.

Energy-market moves carry particular weight for Canada because of the country's role as an oil exporter. The Bank of Canada has highlighted that sustained high oil prices could prompt it to deliver consecutive interest rate hikes if those prices begin to push up inflation.

Market participants are positioning for tighter policy from the central bank, with investors leaning toward a Bank of Canada rate increase by July and pricing in at least two hikes in total by the end of 2026.


This reporting focuses on currency and energy-market reactions to geopolitical developments and central bank guidance. It reflects market quotes, official statements and investor pricing expectations as reported.

Risks

  • Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions could keep pushing investors into safe-haven currencies, applying downward pressure on the Canadian dollar and affecting forex and trade-exposed sectors.
  • Rising oil prices may increase inflationary pressures in Canada, raising the likelihood of additional Bank of Canada rate hikes and affecting borrowing costs across sectors sensitive to interest rates.
  • Market pricing of future BoC moves is uncertain and could change quickly if geopolitical headlines shift or oil prices reverse, affecting interest-rate sensitive assets and the broader financial markets.

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