Overview
Goldman Sachs reported on Monday that total global oil inventories are nearing an eight-year trough, and emphasized that the pace at which stocks are being used is a significant concern. The bank put total global stocks at 101 days of global demand (DoD) and said they could drop to 98 DoD by the end of May.
Market reaction and regional disruptions
Oil prices rose by about 6% on Monday after Iranian forces struck several ships in the Strait of Hormuz and set fire to a United Arab Emirates oil port. Those actions coincided with a U.S. attempt - led by President Donald Trump and involving the U.S. Navy - to reopen shipping lanes, an effort that the bank said prompted the largest escalation since a ceasefire had been declared four weeks earlier. Goldman noted that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.
Inventories and refined product buffers
While Goldman judged it unlikely that total global stocks would fall to minimum operational levels this summer, it warned that the speed of depletion and regional supply losses are troubling. The bank estimated that global commercial refined products stocks have drawn down from 50 DoD before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran to 45 DoD now, and added that easily accessible refined products buffers are approaching very low levels.
Implications highlighted by the bank
The bank's commentary focused on the combination of constrained flows through a key shipping chokepoint, recent attacks on vessels and an oil port, and a measurable reduction in refined products inventories. Together, these factors are cited as heightening supply concerns even if absolute global stock levels are not projected to hit operational minima over the coming months.
Note: The reporting above reflects Goldman Sachs' estimates and observations as presented by the bank.