S&P Global Ratings has maintained its 'B-' long-term and 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Democratic Republic of Congo, keeping a positive outlook on the country’s credit profile. The rating agency pointed to relatively contained fiscal deficits and stronger international reserves as central considerations, while noting ongoing challenges including armed conflict in the eastern provinces and a recent Ebola outbreak.
In its assessment, S&P forecasted average GDP growth of 5.5% for the period 2026-2029, attributing this performance to continued strong global demand for the DRC’s principal exports - copper and cobalt. The agency expects headline budget deficits to average 2.4% of GDP over the next four years, a trajectory it views as contained relative to sovereign peers at this rating level.
International reserves have been strengthened by two key developments. First, the DRC completed its inaugural Eurobond issuance in April 2026, raising $1.25 billion across two senior unsecured tranches - a $600 million 2032 tranche carrying an 8.75% yield and a $650 million 2037 tranche at a 9.50% yield. Second, arrangements with the International Monetary Fund remain in place, supporting external liquidity. As of late June 2026, foreign currency reserves stood at $8.2 billion, a rise S&P links to a narrowing current account deficit and robust foreign direct investment inflows.
On the production front, S&P expects copper and cobalt output to increase in 2026. Higher output from the Tenke Fungurume mine, operated by China’s CMOC, is projected to offset a temporary decline at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, which is operated by Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining and is implementing a new mine plan while recovering from seismic activity experienced in 2025. The rating agency also projects a 26% rise in copper prices in 2026, a factor it says will help narrow the current account deficit to below 2% of GDP.
The DRC’s economy remains characterized by low income levels, with GDP per capita expected to be approximately $1,100 in 2026. Fiscal policy adjustments implemented under the Extended Credit Facility program include a standardized value-added tax invoicing system introduced in December 2025 and the removal of various tax exemptions and fuel subsidies. Nevertheless, security spending remains elevated: S&P notes that defense and exceptional expenditures have exceeded 3% of GDP annually amid ongoing clashes between the Congolese army and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group, despite parallel peace processes led by the United States and Qatar.
Overall, S&P’s affirmation underscores a balance between improving macroeconomic buffers and persistent structural and security vulnerabilities that continue to influence the DRC’s sovereign profile.