World July 24, 2026 04:21 PM

S&P Upholds DRC Sovereign Rating at B- Citing Strong Copper Demand and Improved Reserves

Ratings affirmed despite security challenges and health outbreaks as fiscal reforms and a landmark Eurobond bolster external buffers

By Maya Rios
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S&P Global Ratings has affirmed the Democratic Republic of Congo’s long-term sovereign rating at 'B-' and short-term rating at 'B', retaining a positive outlook. The decision reflects contained fiscal deficits and rising international reserves supported by a $1.25 billion Eurobond and ongoing IMF arrangements, even as conflict in the east and a recent Ebola outbreak persist. S&P projects robust GDP growth driven by copper and cobalt exports and anticipates stronger external positions through 2026 and beyond.

S&P Upholds DRC Sovereign Rating at B- Citing Strong Copper Demand and Improved Reserves
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Key Points

  • S&P affirmed the DRC’s long-term rating at 'B-' and short-term rating at 'B', with a positive outlook.
  • A $1.25 billion Eurobond issued in April 2026 and IMF arrangements helped lift foreign currency reserves to $8.2 billion by late June 2026, while copper and cobalt export growth underpins projected GDP growth of 5.5% for 2026-2029.
  • Fiscal reforms such as a standardized VAT invoicing system (introduced December 2025) and the removal of tax exemptions and fuel subsidies support contained budget deficits averaging 2.4% of GDP over the next four years.

S&P Global Ratings has maintained its 'B-' long-term and 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Democratic Republic of Congo, keeping a positive outlook on the country’s credit profile. The rating agency pointed to relatively contained fiscal deficits and stronger international reserves as central considerations, while noting ongoing challenges including armed conflict in the eastern provinces and a recent Ebola outbreak.

In its assessment, S&P forecasted average GDP growth of 5.5% for the period 2026-2029, attributing this performance to continued strong global demand for the DRC’s principal exports - copper and cobalt. The agency expects headline budget deficits to average 2.4% of GDP over the next four years, a trajectory it views as contained relative to sovereign peers at this rating level.

International reserves have been strengthened by two key developments. First, the DRC completed its inaugural Eurobond issuance in April 2026, raising $1.25 billion across two senior unsecured tranches - a $600 million 2032 tranche carrying an 8.75% yield and a $650 million 2037 tranche at a 9.50% yield. Second, arrangements with the International Monetary Fund remain in place, supporting external liquidity. As of late June 2026, foreign currency reserves stood at $8.2 billion, a rise S&P links to a narrowing current account deficit and robust foreign direct investment inflows.

On the production front, S&P expects copper and cobalt output to increase in 2026. Higher output from the Tenke Fungurume mine, operated by China’s CMOC, is projected to offset a temporary decline at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, which is operated by Ivanhoe Mines and Zijin Mining and is implementing a new mine plan while recovering from seismic activity experienced in 2025. The rating agency also projects a 26% rise in copper prices in 2026, a factor it says will help narrow the current account deficit to below 2% of GDP.

The DRC’s economy remains characterized by low income levels, with GDP per capita expected to be approximately $1,100 in 2026. Fiscal policy adjustments implemented under the Extended Credit Facility program include a standardized value-added tax invoicing system introduced in December 2025 and the removal of various tax exemptions and fuel subsidies. Nevertheless, security spending remains elevated: S&P notes that defense and exceptional expenditures have exceeded 3% of GDP annually amid ongoing clashes between the Congolese army and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group, despite parallel peace processes led by the United States and Qatar.


Overall, S&P’s affirmation underscores a balance between improving macroeconomic buffers and persistent structural and security vulnerabilities that continue to influence the DRC’s sovereign profile.

Risks

  • Ongoing armed conflict in the east and the recent Ebola outbreak pose security and public health risks that could increase fiscal and social spending; this affects defense and healthcare sectors and may pressure public finances.
  • Temporary production disruptions at major mines - including Kamoa-Kakula’s recovery from 2025 seismic activity - create volatility in mining output and export revenue, impacting the mining sector and external accounts.

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