Stock Markets June 18, 2026 10:42 AM

SpaceX Shares Slide as Post-IPO Rally Reverses and Valuation Concerns Mount

Stock drops nearly 6% after rapid post-listing run-up; acquisition, losses and lock-up expiration weigh on investor sentiment

By Avery Klein
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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. shares fell sharply in morning trading, reversing an extraordinary three-day post-IPO surge. The pullback follows investor profit-taking, questions about valuation after a $60 billion all-stock acquisition announcement, disclosure of large recent net losses, and an approaching lock-up expiration. Broader market gains offered no respite as institutional opinion remained split and analyst coverage produced divergent signals.

SpaceX Shares Slide as Post-IPO Rally Reverses and Valuation Concerns Mount
SPCX AMZN
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Key Points

  • SpaceX shares fell nearly 6% in morning trading, reaching a session low of $176.60 after a rapid three-day climb from $135 to $225.64.
  • Valuation worries have intensified following SpaceX's announcement of a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere and disclosure of substantial net losses in 2025 and Q1 2026, with Starlink reported as the only profitable segment.
  • An upcoming lock-up expiration in August, divergent price targets including Arete's $401 street-high estimate, and underperformance versus broader market gains are contributing to investor uncertainty.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. dropped as much as 6.0% in morning trading on Thursday, touching a session low of $176.60 as profit-taking intensified in the wake of a spectacular debut and short-lived rally.

The stock had climbed rapidly from $135 to an intraday peak of $225.64 over just three trading days following the company’s initial public offering. That ascent was followed by a reversal that began Wednesday, representing the first down day since the public listing. On Wednesday the stock closed down almost 5%, a sign of post-IPO exhaustion after SpaceX briefly surpassed Amazon in market capitalization on a valuation basis.

Investors pointed to valuation-related concerns as a key driver of the selling. Those concerns were amplified by SpaceX’s announcement, shortly after its IPO, of a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the maker of the AI coding tool Cursor. The deal has divided institutional investors over the company’s capital allocation strategy.

Compounding uncertainty is an impending lock-up expiration in August, which some market participants see as a potential source of additional share supply. Attention has also shifted toward recently disclosed financials: SpaceX’s IPO filing showed a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and a further net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The filing also indicated that Starlink remains the company’s only profitable segment.

Price action in the earliest days of trading underscored investor exuberance and its limits: within 48 hours of trading, the stock exceeded the highest published price target, while Morningstar’s fair value estimate remains well below the market price. Those valuation divergences have added to friction among buy-side institutions evaluating the new public company.

Wider market strength did little to cushion the decline in SpaceX shares. The S&P 500 was up 0.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 1.2% on the same day, highlighting how sharply SPCX underperformed its peers.

Monetary policy considerations were also in the background. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fourth meeting in a row on June 17, and new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh outlined a reform agenda. While that environment has generally supported many growth-oriented names, it did not prevent selling pressure in SpaceX shares.

On the analyst front, Arete initiated coverage on Thursday with a buy rating, according to a market report. Arete’s Andrew Beale pointed to a substantial suburban broadband opportunity driven by Starlink’s V3 satellites and emphasized that SpaceX is taking staged approaches to engineering challenges across space, connectivity and AI hardware and software. Arete set a street-high price target of $401 for SPCX, which implies a 109% premium over Wednesday’s closing price of $191.82.

Separately, NASA selected Relativity Space to build a spacecraft for an upcoming Mars mission named Aeolus. The spacecraft will carry NASA instruments to measure and image Mars from orbit, and the mission is scheduled to launch in 2028. The selection underscores ongoing public-private collaboration in space exploration, though it does not directly concern SpaceX’s recent share movements.


As SpaceX moves beyond its IPO debut, investors are weighing rapid early gains against acquisition strategy, recent losses and potential future share supply, factors that together have contributed to the current pullback in the stock.

Risks

  • Valuation risk driven by a high market price relative to some fair value estimates and the $60 billion all-stock acquisition, which could affect investor appetite - impacts technology and capital markets sectors.
  • Supply risk from an August lock-up expiration that may increase share availability and pressure the stock - impacts equity market liquidity and investor sentiment in the space and tech sectors.
  • Earnings and cash-flow risk due to reported net losses of $4.9 billion in 2025 and $4.28 billion in Q1 2026, with profitability concentrated in Starlink - impacts telecom and aerospace investment assessments.

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