Overview
Prediction market activity hit record levels during the recent NFL weekend, according to analysis presented by Jefferies. Across eight exchanges, total traded volume reached $3.17 billion on Saturday and $3.12 billion on Sunday.
Exchange-by-exchange volume
DKeX reported $93 million in volume on Saturday and $137 million on Sunday, a new single-day peak for the platform. The Sunday figure outpaced DKeX’s prior all-time daily high by roughly $84 million. Kalshi accounted for $4.89 billion in volume across the two-day span, with trading split relatively evenly between Saturday and Sunday. Polymarket recorded $404 million in volume on Sunday, a pace below its World Cup daily average of $532 million.
NFL concentration across platforms
The share of trading tied to NFL contracts differed markedly by exchange. On Sunday, approximately 80% of DKeX’s volume was related to NFL contracts. By comparison, 39% of Kalshi’s activity was NFL-linked, while Nadex saw just 2% of its Sunday volume tied to NFL trading.
Estimated fee revenue and contract volumes
Using each exchange’s fee schedule, Jefferies estimated NFL-related trading produced about $1.1 million in revenue for DKeX, $5.7 million for Kalshi, and roughly $20,000 for Nadex. Those revenue estimates are based on contract volumes of $110 million for DKeX, $963 million for Kalshi, and $1.5 million for Nadex on Sunday.
DKeX’s Sunday NFL slate also generated an estimated $276,000 in maker fees. Jefferies noted that not all of that maker-fee figure represents incremental revenue for NASDAQ:DKNG, since some of the liquidity could have been supplied by affiliated market makers. Jefferies’ analysis further highlights that Kalshi’s Sunday volume was about 17 times larger than DKeX’s.
Implications and context
The weekend’s data illustrate both elevated overall demand for prediction-market trading and substantial variation in how that demand is allocated across platforms. While total traded amounts reached multi-billion-dollar levels, the distribution of NFL-related activity and the composition of liquidity providers influence how much revenue accrues to individual exchanges.
Data notes
All volume, contract, and revenue figures reflect Jefferies’ analysis and the fee schedules of the relevant exchanges. The breakdowns above are tied directly to the data points and estimates reported by Jefferies for the specific weekend in question.