Options markets are pricing in a 3.3% expected move for ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. stock when the energy company reports earnings on July 31 before U.S. markets open, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.
The options-implied figure reflects the market's aggregated expectations for the magnitude of a share-price swing around the earnings announcement. Across the most recent eight quarterly reports, ExxonMobil's actual price movement has exceeded that options-implied amount in three instances, while in the other five it moved by less than the market's implied expectation.
- On May 1, the options market implied a 2.5% move; the stock's actual change was 1.5%.
- On January 30, the implied move was 2.0%, and the stock moved 5.8%.
- On October 31, 2025, options implied a 2.1% move, and the stock declined 1.4%.
- On August 1, 2025, the options market suggested a 2.1% move; the stock fell 1.0%.
- On May 2, 2025, implied volatility pointed to a 3.1% move; the stock declined 2.2%.
- On January 31, 2025, the stock dropped 3.0% compared with an implied move of 2.6%.
- On November 1, 2024, the stock fell 3.9% against a 1.4% implied move.
- On August 2, 2024, options indicated a 2.2% move while the stock declined 0.5%.
Those past outcomes illustrate a mix of outcomes relative to options-derived expectations: several quarters saw smaller-than-implied moves, while a subset recorded larger-than-implied price swings. The 3.3% implied figure for the July 31 release is the market's current consensus estimate of the absolute intraday change the stock might experience around the announcement.
Investors and market participants often monitor options-implied moves ahead of earnings to gauge expected volatility and to size positions accordingly. The specific implied percentage is a snapshot reflecting current options prices and can change as traders adjust positions in the days leading up to the report.
Note: The 3.3% implied move and the historical comparisons above are drawn from options data compiled by Bloomberg and the recorded share-price changes on the dates listed.