Options-market signals show Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) could see its stock move roughly 11% around its upcoming earnings report, scheduled for July 23 before the market opens, according to Bloomberg data on option-implied volatility.
That implied figure is notable because in recent quarters actual post-earnings price swings have often outpaced what options pricing had suggested. In five of the last eight Cleveland-Cliffs earnings announcements, the stock’s realized movement topped the options-implied estimate.
Examples from prior reports underline the variability. On February 9, the share price fell 10.5%, compared with an implied move of 9.9% priced into options. Conversely, on October 20, 2025, shares surged 22.8% versus an implied 6.9% move. The largest single swing in the sample occurred on May 7, 2025, when the stock dropped 15% though options had priced in a 9.3% move. At the opposite extreme, the smallest reaction was on July 22, 2024, when the stock declined just 1.8% compared with a 7.1% implied move.
Most recently, Cleveland-Cliffs reported on April 20, when the stock rose 7.6% after the release, a gain that fell short of the 9.3% move suggested by options prices.
For market participants who track earnings-driven volatility, the pattern of sometimes exceeding and sometimes underperforming implied moves is relevant for positioning around the July 23 report. The options-implied 11% figure offers one way to gauge the market’s expectations for the magnitude of any post-release reaction, but past outcomes show substantial variation in actual price responses.
Given the history of outsized swings and mixed alignment with implied volatility, investors and traders focused on steel, industrials, and related transportation sectors may view the upcoming report as a potentially high-volatility event.