June 30 - In a notable repositioning, brokerage Oppenheimer cut its ratings on several leading U.S. investment banks, recommending that investors reduce exposure to the largest brokerages and allocate capital to alternative asset managers.
Oppenheimer downgraded Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to "underperform" from "perform." The calls came as the brokerage judged that current market valuations for the major investment banks offer limited room for additional gains despite a favorable operating environment.
Market reaction was immediate in premarket trading: shares of Morgan Stanley were down 1.36% before the bell, while Goldman Sachs fell about 0.4% after the downgrades. The firm also lowered Citigroup and Bank of America to "perform" from "outperform," and those stocks slipped roughly 0.5% each in premarket trade.
Oppenheimer's analysts argued that, although they do not see an immediate catalyst that would derail the banks' growth or return dynamics, the large investment banks have moved into the later phase of an expansionary cycle. The brokerage captured the judgment directly: "While the cycle may well go on for another 12-18 months or more, we’d rather not wait around for the warning signs to appear, and thus particularly in the case of the investment banks, we are more inclined to take the money and run," Oppenheimer analysts wrote.
Rather than maintaining heavy positions in large-cap investment banks, Oppenheimer suggested investors redirect capital toward other financial segments. The brokerage specifically recommended focusing on commercial banks such as US Bancorp and PNC Financial Services, noting these institutions are in a relatively earlier phase of expansion and may therefore offer more runway.
At the same time, Oppenheimer advocated buying select alternative asset managers. The firm highlighted Ares Management, Blackstone and KKR as preferred plays within the alternatives complex. The recommendation follows a significant selloff in shares of alternative asset managers earlier in the year, a downturn many analysts attributed to concerns around private-credit exposure and the risk of elevated redemptions from flagship funds.
Oppenheimer acknowledged the market's unease but framed the pullback as an opportunity: "We suggest that investors maintain their financial exposure by re-deploying the funds raised into the Alts," Oppenheimer said. The brokerage's stance reflects a view that investor fears over private-credit exposure and redemption dynamics have been overplayed by the market.
The moves represent a strategic reweighting rather than an outright negative view of the financial sector as a whole. Oppenheimer emphasized that it does not see an immediate threat to the underlying growth and returns of investment banks, but prefers to act on the timing of the cycle and reposition portfolios accordingly.
Market snapshot mentioned in coverage:
- Morgan Stanley: down 1.36% (premarket)
- Goldman Sachs: down about 0.4% (after downgrade)
- Citigroup and Bank of America: down about 0.5% each (premarket)