J.P. Morgan Cazenove has moved Antofagasta Plc up to an overweight rating from neutral and raised its December 2027 price target to 4,500 pence per share from 3,400 pence, citing stronger-than-peer organic copper growth prospects and an improving free cash flow profile.
The brokerage highlighted that Antofagasta offers about 30% organic copper production growth to 2028 relative to 2025, a level it says is higher than that of the company's main copper-producing peers. Much of the expected expansion is attributed to the brownfield Centinela second concentrator project in Chile.
According to the note, that growth profile supports an "EV/EBITDA de-rating from ~11x in 2026E to ~7x in 2028E" when compared with an average multiple of roughly 8 times for major copper peers. J.P. Morgan also projected a turnaround in free cash flow yield, from -2% in 2025 to about 6% in 2028.
The broker revised its copper price forecasts higher for both 2026 and 2027 - up 2% and 15% respectively - and increased its group EBITDA forecasts for those years by 3% and 24%. J.P. Morgan noted those EBITDA forecasts are 6% and 13% above Bloomberg consensus for 2026 and 2027.
Adjusted earnings per share estimates were lifted as well. The firm raised its 2026 adjusted EPS projection to $1.96 from $1.79, a 9.4% increase, and its 2027 estimate to $2.24 from $1.44, a 55.4% increase, according to the report.
J.P. Morgan flagged that Antofagasta's recent copper output had been constrained by lower ore grades at the Los Pelambres mine and by a period of emphasis on sustaining projects. However, with the Centinela second concentrator reported to be progressing on-time and on-budget and pre-commissioning activities already underway, the broker estimates the company can deliver 10% to 30% copper growth to 2027 and 2028, placing it among the fastest growing major global copper producers.
The note stressed that Antofagasta's growth is relatively lower risk than some peers, whose expansion is more heavily weighted toward higher-risk greenfield projects, operational recoveries or restarts. J.P. Morgan expects Antofagasta's return on capital employed to recover to over 30% by 2028, up from below 20% in 2024 as production and earnings expand.
On the wider copper market, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, led by Greg Shearer, projects a modest oversupply in 2026 and 2027. The team cited resilient demand and constrained mine supply as contributing factors, while noting scrap generation rose materially in 2025.
The analysts characterised the present global copper market as in a "tug of war" between U.S. tariff-driven import dynamics and Chinese buyers, who have historically been the marginal price setter. The commodities team anticipates the Trump administration will pursue phased, escalating tariffs aimed at keeping metal onshore, while acknowledging such tariffs introduce binary risks.
J.P. Morgan also pointed to major mine supply disruptions in 2025 and 2026, including at Kamoa, El Teniente and Grasberg, as underscoring supply-side vulnerabilities. Looking further ahead, the broker still forecasts the global copper market moving into a deficit of around 2 million tonnes by 2030.
Separately, the article referenced an analytical product that evaluates Antofagasta monthly. That assessment noted previous identification of companies such as Siemens Energy and Sandisk before broader market recognition, citing returns of +231.5% and +189% respectively in prior selections. Promotional offers related to subscription services were also referenced in the original material.
Market context
J.P. Morgan's upgrade reflects an intersection of project delivery at Centinela, revised commodity assumptions and higher company-specific earnings forecasts. The firm ties those elements to improving valuation multiples and free cash flow metrics across the 2025-2028 horizon.