Futures connected to Canada’s primary equity index inched higher on Monday, with easing crude prices contributing to a reduction in investor concern over an energy-driven spike in inflation.
By 07:53 ET (11:53 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had risen by 3 points, equivalent to a 0.1% gain. The broader S&P/TSX composite index finished the prior trading session up 0.88% at 35,274.84, pushed upward by gains in gold and copper that lifted metals mining companies and left the commodities-heavy Canadian benchmark near a two-week peak.
U.S. futures and market backdrop
Across the border, U.S. stock index futures showed a mixed picture as market participants awaited the Federal Reserve’s upcoming minutes from its most recent policy meeting and prepared for the initial tranche of U.S. corporate earnings for the quarter.
- Dow futures were last indicated down about 53 points, or roughly 0.1%.
- S&P 500 futures had climbed by 32 points, or about 0.4%.
- Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by approximately 345 points, near 1.2%.
Major U.S. equity benchmarks concluded the holiday-shortened previous week in positive territory. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose almost 2% over the week, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively. A weaker-than-expected June U.S. jobs report helped ease near-term worries about monetary tightening and provided fuel for the equity advance.
Market participants remain cautious about valuations in stocks exposed to artificial intelligence, where hefty capital expenditures on the necessary infrastructure have raised questions about when those investments will produce returns. The semiconductor sector has felt this pressure: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, a key gauge of chipmakers, has lost about 12% over the last two weeks, although it remains ahead on a year-to-date basis.
Investors will be watching the release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday for additional clues on the trajectory of interest rates. At that meeting, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, although official forecasts suggested the possibility of a rate increase later this year. Separately, it was noted that the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, has indicated he may announce members of task forces to review the central bank’s operations in areas including communications and data analysis.
Corporate earnings season is also starting to unfold. Among the first significant U.S. companies set to report second-quarter results are Levi Strauss & Co, PepsiCo (PEP) and Delta Air Lines (DAL), events traders will be monitoring for guidance and performance indicators.
Energy market developments
Oil prices eased after OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to raise its production quotas, in the latest stage of a planned rollback of voluntary output cuts. The producer group, which includes Russia, approved an increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August. While much of that additional output has not yet arrived in the market, the move reinforces expectations that supply will gradually recover as disruptions in the Gulf region stabilize.
In recent weeks, crude export flows through the Strait of Hormuz have improved, which has helped alleviate fears of prolonged shipping disruptions. Media reports stated that ten Japan-linked vessels were departing the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after having been stranded in the Gulf for months.
Precious metals and the dollar
Spot gold gave back some ground as the U.S. dollar recovered a portion of its steep losses from the previous week amid continued uncertainty about the path of U.S. interest rates. By 08:20 ET, spot gold had declined about 0.5% to $4,155.68 an ounce, while gold futures were reported up roughly 1.0% at $4,169.14 an ounce.
The metal had earlier rebounded from an eight-month low following the weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which had prompted a reassessment of the probability that the Fed would have room to raise rates in 2026. Inflation trends and the strength of the labor market remain the Fed’s primary considerations when deciding on rate moves. Persistent price pressures and ongoing resilience in employment could strengthen the case for higher rates, an outlook that typically weighs on gold given its nature as a non-yielding asset and the higher opportunity cost of holding bullion versus fixed-income instruments.
What to watch this week
- Federal Reserve minutes from the June policy meeting, due Wednesday, which may provide further clarity on potential rate adjustments.
- Early second-quarter corporate earnings, including reports from Levi Strauss & Co, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines, which could offer insight into consumer demand and sector-specific trends.
- Oil supply developments as OPEC+’s quota increases are phased in and as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalize.
Investors will likely weigh these data points alongside ongoing liquidity and valuation dynamics in technology and commodity-linked sectors as the market seeks direction following last week’s gains.