Bernstein has raised its price target on ASML Holding NV to €2,300 from €1,700 and maintained an "outperform" recommendation on the Dutch lithography equipment maker, citing an acceleration in the capital expenditure cycle and higher lithography intensity tied to AI-driven demand.
The brokerage also increased the multiple it applies to ASML's earnings to 40 times from 35 times, which it characterized as roughly one standard deviation above the historical mean. That uplift in valuation accompanies material upward revisions to the firm's revenue and shipment assumptions.
Forecast revisions and revenue trajectory
Bernstein said it materially raised its top-line forecasts for ASML after what it describes as an "unprecedented AI-driven expansion in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity." On extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, systems it lifted its 2027 shipment forecast - including High-NA machines - to 91 units from 86, and now sees 2028 shipments at 113 units, up from 87.
The broker projects ASML's EUV revenue will grow at a 30% compound annual rate to reach €42.7 billion by 2030, a figure Bernstein notes is more than 30% above the street estimate. It also increased its deep ultraviolet, or DUV, revenue projection to €20 billion by 2030, compared with €13 billion in 2026 under prior assumptions.
Combining these elements, Bernstein now expects overall ASML revenue to reach €80 billion by 2030, which equates to a 20% compound annual growth rate and sits 24% above the consensus estimate of €64 billion for that year. On profitability, the broker forecasts 2028 earnings per share of €67 - about 35% above consensus - and 2030 EPS of €97, which implies a 31% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share from current baselines.
Adoption timeline for High-NA EUV
Bernstein outlined which customers it expects to bring High-NA EUV tools into production first. The broker believes memory chipmakers will adopt High-NA before logic customers, reasoning that DRAM die sizes are smaller and typically require only a single mask, while larger logic dies often need two masks.
Under Bernstein's timetable, SK Hynix and Samsung would deploy High-NA in DRAM manufacturing in 2027, followed by Intel for logic in 2028, Samsung's logic operations in 2029, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co in 2030. The firm noted that TSMC's slower adoption schedule does not reflect doubts about High-NA's technical merits, but rather TSMC's relative prudence and conservatism in adopting new technology versus optimizing existing nodes.
Litho intensity and market implications
The brokerage estimated that lithography intensity - the proportion of total manufacturing cost attributable to lithography - will rise from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028, with the increase driven mainly by DRAM. This rising share of costs tied to lithography underpins Bernstein's stronger revenue assumptions for ASML.
Wider coverage changes
Bernstein also raised price targets across other chip-sector companies it covers: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co to $430 from $351; Intel to $100 from $65; Samsung Electronics to 440,000 Korean won from 225,000 won; SK Hynix to 3,300,000 won from 1,150,000 won; and Micron Technology to $1,300 from $510.
Downside scenarios
Bernstein listed several risks that could prevent ASML from reaching its updated target. These include margins coming in below expectations because of the cost of commercializing EUV, a larger-than-expected inventory buildup in China, a weaker-than-expected wafer fab equipment market overall, and the imposition of further export controls on customers in China.
Those risks have implications across the semiconductor equipment supply chain as well as for memory and logic chip manufacturers, given the central role of lithography intensity and capital spending in the broker's revised outlook.
What this means for markets
Bernstein's revisions reflect a view that AI-led demand is reshaping capex priorities at both memory and advanced-logic firms, tightening the link between increased chip production intensity and equipment suppliers' revenue prospects. The broker's more aggressive shipment and revenue forecasts, combined with a higher earnings multiple, indicate a materially more optimistic scenario for ASML over the coming years, while highlighting several industry sensitivities that could alter that trajectory.