Goldman Sachs estimates the 2026 FIFA World Cup will add about 40,000 payroll jobs to U.S. employment in June, with the bulk of those positions reversing in the months after the tournament concludes.
The multinational soccer tournament runs from June 11 to July 19 and will be staged across venues in the United States, Mexico and Canada. Within the U.S., 78 matches are scheduled to take place in 11 metropolitan areas. Goldman notes those host metros account for roughly one third of U.S. gross domestic product and about one quarter of both national employment and the consumer price index.
Drawing on historical analogs - including the 1994 U.S. World Cup, two decades of Super Bowls and U.S. Olympic Games in Los Angeles, Atlanta and Salt Lake City - the bank models a temporary employment surge concentrated in sectors that directly serve event attendees.
Goldman’s central employment trajectory calls for payrolls to run about 40,000 above trend in June, rise another 10,000 above trend in July, and then fall by 15,000 in August after the tournament ends. The bank expects further reversals in subsequent months as temporary roles conclude.
Sectoral patterns are uneven: leisure and hospitality, retail trade and transportation are expected to capture most of the incremental jobs. Business services may experience earlier hiring to provide support activities linked to the event, but those gains are portrayed as time-limited.
On the spending side, Goldman projects retail sales growth will receive a 0.3 percentage-point lift in June and a further 0.1 percentage-point bump in July. Quarterly GDP effects are estimated as a 0.1 percentage-point addition in the second quarter, followed by a 0.05 percentage-point contribution in the third quarter and a small negative offset in the fourth quarter.
The bank attributes the boost to consumer spending and exports of services from foreign visitors, and expects an additional 500,000 to 1 million foreign tourists to arrive in June and July relative to baseline.
Goldman also models modest upward pressure on core inflation measures. The bank forecasts core CPI will rise by 0.03 percentage points in June, with an additional 0.01 percentage-point increase in July before a 0.01 percentage-point decline beginning in August and continuing thereafter. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation is estimated to tick up 0.04 percentage points in June.
Already-observed price moves are consistent with the projection: hotel rates have climbed, and city-level CPI data historically show increases for restaurant meals and transportation prices in host cities during major sporting events.
Goldman stresses that the economic impacts of major sporting events are typically short-lived and tend to reverse in the months following the event, consistent with the bank’s modeled payroll and price-path reversals.
Summary
Goldman Sachs expects a temporary increase of about 40,000 U.S. payroll jobs in June tied to the 2026 World Cup, with smaller net gains in July and declines after the tournament. The bank anticipates modest uplifts to retail sales and quarterly GDP driven by added consumer spending and foreign tourist arrivals, and small, short-lived increases in core inflation measures.