Stock Markets July 24, 2026 09:39 AM

BTIG Names High-Conviction Real Estate Picks for H2 2026

Investment firm highlights industrial, office, commercial mortgage, homebuilding, retail and net lease leaders for the back half of 2026

By Priya Menon
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BTIG released its highest-conviction real estate stock selections for the second half of 2026 across six property and finance sectors. The firm emphasized candidates chosen for fundamental strength, earnings-growth potential and favorable supply-demand dynamics over a 12-month horizon. Top picks include Prologis in industrials, SL Green in offices, TPG RE Finance Trust in commercial mortgage, D.R. Horton in homebuilding, Regency Centers in large-cap retail, and NETSTREIT in net lease.

BTIG Names High-Conviction Real Estate Picks for H2 2026
PLD SLG TRTX DHI REG
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Key Points

  • BTIG released high-conviction real estate stock selections for H2 2026 across industrial, office, commercial mortgage, homebuilding, retail and net lease sectors.
  • Prologis is the top industrial REIT pick, with record Q1 2026 leasing, a 30% sequential expansion in its forward leasing pipeline, and a data center platform pursuing 5.6 gigawatts of development opportunity.
  • SL Green, TPG RE Finance Trust, D.R. Horton, Regency Centers and NETSTREIT were each chosen as sector leaders based on occupancy, originations, production model, development pipeline yields, and capital-raising activity.

BTIG has published its top real estate stock selections for the second half of 2026, identifying opportunities across industrial, office, commercial mortgage, homebuilding, retail and net lease sectors. The firm says its highest-conviction ideas were selected based on fundamental strength, the potential for earnings growth and supply-demand characteristics expected to play out over a 12-month investment horizon.


Prologis (PLD) - Industrial REIT

BTIG keeps Prologis as its top industrial REIT pick for H2 2026. The firm highlights record leasing volume reported by Prologis in the first quarter of 2026 and notes that the company’s forward leasing pipeline expanded 30% sequentially. According to BTIG, warehouses larger than 500,000 square feet in Prologis’s portfolio are effectively full, a condition the firm expects to support a positive rent inflection in the second half of 2026.

BTIG also expects development starts to surpass the roughly $4.0 billion figure embedded in Prologis’s 2026 guidance. Separately, the company’s data center platform is pursuing 5.6 gigawatts of development opportunities, which BTIG describes as representing about $40 billion in investment potential and carrying yields materially higher than traditional logistics real estate.

Prologis reported second-quarter 2026 earnings and revenue that exceeded analyst estimates and subsequently raised its full-year outlook. The company also increased its takeover offer for U.K. warehouse landlord Segro to


SL Green Realty (SLG) - Office REIT

BTIG designated SL Green as its office-sector top pick for H2 2026. SL Green’s leased occupancy rose to 94.4% in the first quarter of 2026, a recovery from a pandemic low of 85.9% in the first quarter of 2024. BTIG projects double-digit same-store net operating income growth in 2027 as cash rent commencements accelerate.

BTIG cites Manhattan leasing activity as a supportive factor for the outlook. First-quarter 2026 Manhattan new office leasing was the highest since the second quarter of 2019, which BTIG says underpins expectations for above-average cash flow growth. In company-reported results, SL Green posted second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings that beat expectations and raised its full-year outlook, although revenue for the quarter came in below forecasts.


TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) - Commercial Mortgage REIT

For the small-to-mid-cap commercial mortgage REIT category, BTIG selected TPG RE Finance Trust. The firm highlights TRTX’s $1.9 billion of new loan originations during 2025 and notes that the company had executed $535 million in term sheets as of late April 2026. With leverage at 3.1 times as of the first quarter of 2026, BTIG sees runway for continued growth of the loan portfolio.

BTIG also points out stability signals: TRTX has covered its dividend for five consecutive quarters and reports only three watchlisted loans with no five-rated assets. TRTX reported first-quarter 2026 earnings per share that met analyst expectations while revenue was slightly below forecasts. Following those results, Citizens reiterated its Market Outperform rating on the company.


D.R. Horton (DHI) - Homebuilding

BTIG retains D.R. Horton as its homebuilding top pick for H2 2026, citing the company’s spec production model, a land-light balance sheet and a broad geographic footprint. BTIG notes that D.R. Horton’s market count rose 29% from 2021 to 2025, with most of the new markets located outside the top 50. The firm believes that footprint expansion positions D.R. Horton for growth without materially diluting absorption in existing communities.

D.R. Horton announced fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings and revenue that beat expectations, though the company trimmed its full-year outlook. After the announcement, RBC Capital raised its price target while Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered its target.


Regency Centers (REG) - Large-Cap Retail REIT

BTIG continues to favor Regency Centers as its large-cap retail REIT pick for H2 2026. The company finished the first quarter of 2026 with a $635 million development pipeline that carries an expected yield of approximately 9%. BTIG highlights the quality of Regency’s portfolio, a healthy signed-not-open pipeline and pricing power across both anchor tenants and small-shop tenants as sources of growth.

Regency Centers reported first-quarter 2026 results that surpassed both earnings and revenue expectations. The company’s board also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.755 per common share.


NETSTREIT (NTST) - Net Lease REIT

BTIG updated its small-to-mid-cap net lease top pick to NETSTREIT for H2 2026. Management increased full-year investment guidance by 50% following what BTIG describes as solid capital raising and transaction activity. The firm views the portfolios concentration of investment-grade and necessity-based retail tenants, combined with an improving transaction market, as supportive of accelerated growth in the second half of the year.

NETSTREIT announced second-quarter 2026 revenue that exceeded forecasts, though earnings per share missed estimates. The company subsequently raised its full-year outlook.


BTIGs selections span the industrial, office, commercial mortgage, homebuilding, retail and net lease sectors and reflect a preference for names where reported results, leasing trends, pipeline activity or capital deployment plans align with BTIGs expectations for improved cash flow or earnings growth over the next 12 months.

Risks

  • Some companies reported revenue figures that lagged analyst forecasts despite earnings beats or raised outlooks - this was noted for SL Green (Q2 2026 revenue below forecasts) and TPG RE Finance Trust (Q1 2026 revenue slightly below forecasts), which could introduce near-term top-line pressure in the office and commercial mortgage sectors.
  • Companies trimmed or revised outlooks after results - D.R. Horton trimmed its full-year outlook despite topping fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings and revenue, indicating potential uncertainty in the homebuilding sector.
  • Leverage and portfolio watchlists present potential vulnerabilities - TPG RE Finance Trust reported leverage at 3.1 times as of Q1 2026 and has three watchlisted loans, which could affect the commercial mortgage REIT sector if credit conditions worsen.

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