Barclays downgraded Belgian drugmaker UCB SA to "equal weight" from "overweight" and cut its price target to €300 from €310 on Monday, saying elevated research and development spending stemming from recent acquisitions and a scarcity of clinical catalysts ahead of 2028 have weakened the near-term investment case. Shares dropped more than 3% on the day.
The new price target equates to 23.5 times Barclays' FY27 price-to-earnings estimate, a valuation the broker notes is roughly a 63% premium to mid-cap peers, which trade at 14.3 times. When valuing UCB on a drug-level net present value basis, Barclays arrives at approximately €262 per share. UCB was quoted at €274.90 on June 12, implying about 9% upside to the revised target.
Barclays raised its FY26-29 price-to-earnings growth ratio to 1.3 times from 1.2 times, moving UCB into closer alignment with peers such as Galderma and Sandoz. While the broker nudged up sales forecasts for FY27 through FY29, its updated projections show the FY26-29 earnings per share compound annual growth rate falling to 21.5% from a prior 24.4% estimate. Adjusted EBITDA expectations were trimmed versus the previous outlook - down 1% in FY26, 5% in FY27 and 6% in FY28.
On product performance, Barclays highlighted continued strong prescription momentum for UCB's primary drug, Bimzelx, raising its FY26 sales estimate to €3.31 billion from €3.19 billion. The brokerage models first-half 2026 Bimzelx sales of €1.46 billion, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of €1.44 billion.
However, Barclays projects a roughly 21% half-on-half net price decline for Bimzelx in 1H26, bringing the unit price to $6,529. The broker attributes the drop to the unwinding of medical exemption benefits and larger rebates tied to earlier line use.
UCB's acquisition activity accelerated in the first half of 2026, with about $2.73 billion in upfront cash committed across three transactions: approximately $650 million to acquire Neurona Therapeutics, about $80 million for ATG-201, and $2.0 billion for Candid Therapeutics. Barclays incorporated these deals into its valuation and pipeline assessment.
For Neurona's lead gene therapy candidate NRTX-1001, Barclays assigns a 35% probability of success, translating into an estimated net present value contribution of €2.86 per UCB share. The broker models peak unadjusted sales for NRTX-1001 at around €1.4 billion by 2040.
Barclays expects the recent acquisitions to pressurize margins as UCB ramps investment in its pipeline. The broker forecasts research and development spending at 24.5% of sales in 2026, about 70 basis points above Bloomberg consensus and representing an 18.1% year-on-year increase.
Competition in hidradenitis suppurativa is an additional headwind Barclays flagged. It outlined several upcoming industry readouts that, if successful for rivals, could intensify competition: Phase 3 data for AbbVie’s lutikizumab in the second half of 2026, Phase 3 results for Incyte’s ruxolitinib in the fourth quarter of 2026, and Novartis’s remibrutinib readout expected in mid-2027.
Despite the higher spending and heightened competitive pressure, Barclays still projects 2026 revenue of €8.60 billion and adjusted EBITDA of €2.87 billion for UCB. Both figures sit above the midpoint of UCB’s post-Neurona guidance ranges of €8.26 billion for revenue and €2.73 billion for adjusted EBITDA.
UCB is scheduled to report first-half 2026 results on July 30.
Key details
- Rating moved to equal weight from overweight; price target lowered to €300 from €310.
- Valuation set at 23.5x FY27 P/E, about a 63% premium to mid-cap peers; drug-level NPV implies ~€262 per share.
- FY26-29 EPS CAGR trimmed to 21.5% from 24.4%; adjusted EBITDA forecasts reduced across FY26-FY28.
Outlook
Barclays' revisions reflect a tradeoff between stronger near-term sales for Bimzelx and a heavier cost base driven by acquisitions and elevated R&D intensity. The broker's model still anticipates revenue and adjusted EBITDA above UCB's own guidance midpoints for 2026, but the downgrade underscores concerns about valuation and the timing of clinical catalysts.