Key policy move
Ukraine’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point to 15.5% on Thursday, marking the first policy rate rise since March 2025. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said it stands ready to tighten monetary policy further if required to contain price pressures.
Market expectations
Among five economists surveyed by Bloomberg, only one had anticipated the rate increase; the remaining four had expected the central bank to hold rates steady.
Inflation dynamics
Headline consumer inflation slowed to 7.2% in June, which the NBU attributes mainly to a larger supply of raw food products. In contrast, core inflation accelerated to 8.1% year-over-year, surpassing the central bank’s projections published in April 2026. The NBU reported that consumer inflation resumed an upward trend in July and now expects headline inflation to reach 10% by the end of 2026.
The bank identifies several factors driving that projected rise in inflation: expanded fiscal stimulus, rising labor costs, and second-round effects stemming from earlier fuel price increases and depreciation of the hryvnia.
Growth outlook and revisions
The NBU revised up its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.8% from earlier estimates. Economic activity returned to growth in the second quarter, with real GDP increasing 0.8% year-over-year. The bank links the rebound to improvements in the energy system and higher government spending.
Looking further ahead, the central bank expects growth to pick up toward roughly 3% in 2027-2028. That acceleration is expected to be supported by higher investment in production capacity and gradual stabilization of the energy sector.
External support and reserves
Ukraine anticipates receiving about $54 billion in direct budget support from international partners in 2026, which includes disbursements under the Ukraine Support Loan program that began in June 2026. The IMF Executive Board approved the first review of the four-year Extended Fund Facility program in July. The NBU forecasts that international reserves will rise to nearly $70 billion by the end of the year.
Policy rationale and outlook
The central bank said the rate increase is intended to preserve the appeal of hryvnia-denominated assets, maintain foreign-exchange market sustainability and keep inflation expectations anchored. The NBU added that the move should put inflation back on a path of deceleration toward its 5% target as early as 2027, with the target expected to be met by the end of 2028.
Summary
The NBU raised its key rate to 15.5% in response to rising core inflation and a renewed uptick in headline prices, while signalling readiness to tighten further. The bank also lifted its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.8% and projects stronger growth and replenished reserves supported by international budgetary aid.