A Baird survey of senior executives at private restaurant chains that together represent $26 billion in annual sales found same-store sales growth decelerated in the week ended June 28, with mixed results across operating formats.
Overall trends - The poll reported comparable sales rising close to 2% for the week, down from an average near 4% in the first three weeks of June. Baird noted that the June average for the group came in slightly below the 3% growth recorded in both April and May, and under the 2.7% increase logged in the first quarter.
Baird's preliminary analysis pointed to cooler and wetter weather versus the prior year as a possible influence on demand patterns during the final week of June.
Segment-level performance
- Quick-service: Comparable sales were down 1% in the most recent week and rose by less than 1% for June overall. That pace compares with 2% growth in May and roughly 1% to 2% in April. For the second quarter, the quick-service segment averaged 1% to 2% growth, below the first quarter's 2.2%.
- Casual dining: Comparable sales fell by less than 1% in the final week of June. The segment averaged a 1% decline for the full month, matching its performance in May. Second quarter comparable sales for casual dining averaged a 1% decline, which Baird describes as an improvement from a 1.6% drop in the first quarter.
- Fast casual: Operators in the fast casual space posted 7% comparable sales growth in the most recent week, lifting the June average to 10%. This followed 5% growth in both May and April. Baird noted that much of the June strength for the segment was driven by one large participant with company-specific factors.
- Coffee concepts: These outlets showed 4% to 5% comparable sales growth in the final week of June and 3% to 4% for the month overall, versus 3% to 4% in May and 5% in April. The second quarter averaged close to 4% growth for coffee concepts.
What this means - The survey indicates momentum cooled late in June across a broad cross-section of private restaurant operators, with divergent outcomes by format. Fast casual and coffee concepts maintained positive growth, while quick-service and casual dining experienced weaker comparable-sales results.
Note: The figures above reflect the responses gathered in the Baird survey and Baird's preliminary analysis cited in the poll results.