Politics September 14, 2026 04:35 PM

Trump's Approval Edges Up as Voters Favor Democrats for Congress, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Shows

Small uptick in White House approval contrasts with widening generic ballot lead for Democrats and public skepticism about presidential initiatives

By Caleb Monroe
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A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted in the days after the Republican Party's inaugural midterm convention found President Trump's approval rating rose slightly to 35% from a record low of 33%, even as a larger share of Americans prefer Democrats to control Congress. The poll also reported broad disapproval of the president's $5,000 dividend pledge tied to Republican control, shifting perceptions of which party is best on the economy, and partisan divides over construction plans at the U.S. capital.

Trump's Approval Edges Up as Voters Favor Democrats for Congress, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Shows
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Key Points

  • Poll shows Trump approval at 35% versus 33% in late August, based on 1,143 respondents and a +/-3 percentage point margin of error - impacts political sentiment and investor focus on policy certainty.
  • Generic ballot gives Democrats a 44% to 37% lead over Republicans - this gap, the widest since January 2025, could influence fiscal and regulatory outlooks relevant to markets.
  • 63% disapprove of the president's $5,000 dividend pledge, including 40% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats - consumer-focused policy proposals face substantial skepticism that could affect household expectations and public finances.

President Trump's public approval ticked up to 35% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over four days following the Republican Party's first-ever midterm convention, modestly higher than the 33% recorded in a late-August Reuters/Ipsos survey. The same poll showed wider electoral headwinds for Republicans, with a national generic ballot favoring Democrats by seven percentage points.

The nationwide survey collected responses from 1,143 Americans and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It captured public reaction to several high-profile items that featured in the convention and subsequent public debate.

Pledge on a $5,000 dividend

A sizable majority - 63% of respondents - said they disapproved of the president's convention speech pledge to provide a $5,000 dividend to every American if Republicans retained control of Congress in the November midterms. That opposition crossed party lines in differing degrees: about four in 10 Republicans voiced disapproval, while roughly nine in 10 Democrats opposed the proposal.

Generic ballot and party standing on the economy

When asked which party they would support if congressional elections were held today in the form of a generic ballot, 44% of respondents chose Democrats and 37% chose Republicans. The seven-point margin is the largest recorded since the president returned to office in January 2025, according to the poll results.

On economic stewardship, respondents slightly preferred Democrats as the better party on the economy by 38% to 37%. That marks a change in recent months, with Democrats gaining ground over the summer and overtaking Republicans on that measure for the first time in about a decade, per the survey's timeline.

Context cited in the poll

The poll noted a decline in the president's popularity that coincided with the onset of a conflict with Iran in February. That conflict disrupted oil shipments from the Middle East, pushed fuel prices near record highs, and affected household finances, factors the survey linked to a drop in support for the president and his party.

The Republican Party has also seen diminishing advantages on economic policy in recent weeks, the survey indicated.

Views on construction in the capital

Respondents expressed clear partisan differences over construction projects in the U.S. capital attributed to the president, including plans for a ballroom at the White House. Opposition was particularly strong among Democrats, with 91% saying they opposed the projects. By contrast, one in four Republicans opposed them. Overall, about two-thirds of Americans considered the construction projects a low priority, a group that included half of Republican respondents.

Limitations of the measures

Analysts note that national generic ballot polls provide a snapshot of national sentiment but do not capture the state-by-state and district-level dynamics that ultimately determine control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. The poll's national numbers show a broader public mood but do not translate directly into outcomes in specific contests, where Republicans may retain structural advantages.


Bottom line

The Reuters/Ipsos poll presents a mixed picture: a small improvement in presidential approval from a record low, paired with a growing national tilt toward Democratic control of Congress and widespread skepticism about a high‑profile campaign pledge and capital construction projects.

Risks

  • Electoral risk: A seven-point generic ballot advantage for Democrats raises the probability of a shift in congressional control, which could complicate the president's legislative agenda - relevant to sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as financials and infrastructure.
  • Economic sentiment risk: Continued unrest linked to the February conflict with Iran, disruptions to oil shipments, and near-record fuel prices have weighed on household finances and public approval - energy and consumer discretionary sectors may be affected.
  • Policy priority uncertainty: Broad public view that construction projects in the capital are low priority, combined with strong partisan opposition, creates uncertainty around use of public or private resources for such projects - this may influence contracting and construction sectors.

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