Economy July 23, 2026 08:12 AM

TSX Futures Slip as Middle East Tensions Lift Oil and U.S. Tech Earnings Weigh on Markets

Commodity strength powers prior TSX gains, but rising geopolitical risk and U.S. tech capital spending temper sentiment

By Caleb Monroe
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Futures tied to Canada's S&P/TSX 60 fell modestly Thursday morning as oil climbed and gold eased amid intensifying conflict in the Middle East. The pullback follows a record close for the TSX average in the previous session driven by higher commodity prices. U.S. futures also declined ahead of a slate of major corporate earnings, with tech-sector spending plans and negative free cash flow at large names contributing to investor caution.

TSX Futures Slip as Middle East Tensions Lift Oil and U.S. Tech Earnings Weigh on Markets
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Key Points

  • TSX 60 futures fell 8 points, or 0.4%, by 07:42 ET (11:42 GMT) after the TSX average hit a record high in the previous session driven by commodity price gains.
  • U.S. futures slid by mid-morning, with Dow futures down 289 points (0.6%), S&P 500 futures down 42 points (0.6%), and Nasdaq 100 futures down 228 points (0.8%), amid investor concern over AI-related valuations and large tech capital spending.
  • Brent crude rose 4.9% to $98.67 a barrel and WTI rose 4.4% to $90.66 a barrel as Middle East tensions escalated; spot gold fell 1.1% to $4,083.09 an ounce as markets weighed potential Fed policy responses.

Futures for Canada’s commodity-oriented stock benchmark moved lower on Thursday as oil and gold diverged in early trading while the situation in the Middle East continued to escalate. By 07:42 ET (11:42 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had fallen by 8 points, or 0.4%.

The pullback came after the TSX average reached a record high in the previous session, a performance underpinned by rising commodity prices that lifted shares in energy and metal mining companies.

Certain Canadian names were attracting attention on earnings. Trucking operator Mullen Group and miner Teck Resources both posted second-quarter profits that beat expectations. Additional Canadian companies scheduled to report results later in the day included Winpak, First Service Corp and A&W Food Services of Canada.


Across the border, U.S. stock index futures were also trading lower. At 07:55 ET, Dow futures were down 289 points, or 0.6%, S&P 500 futures were lower by 42 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had retreated by 228 points, or 0.8%.

Major U.S. averages finished the prior session lower, weighed down by technology names as concerns about rich valuations linked to artificial intelligence persisted. Investor scrutiny intensified after Alphabet raised its capital expenditure guidance for the year, a move that heightened worries the AI-driven spending wave could deepen negative free cash flow for the $4 trillion company. Alphabet now expects to spend as much as $205 billion on AI infrastructure, up from a prior estimate of $190 billion. Shares of Alphabet fell by more than 3% in premarket trading.

Tesla also fell in premarket trade. The electric vehicle maker reported negative free cash flow as it accelerates investment in AI and robotics. In the second quarter, Tesla’s spending climbed to $5.8 billion. Speaking to investors, Elon Musk acknowledged that “this is a massive capex year,” and said the outlays are intended to ultimately “yield incredible returns.”

Investors were preparing for more high-profile corporate reports on Thursday, including results from chipmaker Intel, where consensus expectations point to improved earnings year-over-year driven by rising AI demand. Market participants will be watching whether Intel has closed the competitive gap in 2026. U.S. government support has been cited as a factor underpinning Intel’s turnaround plan, which centers on a new advanced chip platform.

Other scheduled earnings included defense contractors RTX and Lockheed Martin, copper producer Freeport-McMoRan and gold miner Newmont Goldcorp.


Geopolitical developments were a major influence on commodity markets. Fighting involving the U.S. and Iran showed few signs of easing, and market participants were increasingly worried the conflict could spread to other parts of the Gulf, potentially disrupting regional oil flows. Tehran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen claimed responsibility for strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, the first such attacks since the militia announced a blockade on Saudi vessels earlier in the week.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading higher by 4.9% at $98.67 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures had risen 4.4% to $90.66 a barrel.

Rising energy prices fed through to fixed-income markets. U.S. government bond yields climbed to around their highest levels of the year as investors priced in the possibility the Federal Reserve may need to respond to energy-driven inflation pressures with tighter monetary policy.


Gold showed a countermove to oil, retreating from a recent short-term peak. At 08:08 ET, spot gold had slipped 1.1% to $4,083.09 an ounce, while gold futures were down 1.6% at $4,086.19 an ounce. The metal had rallied about 3% over the prior two sessions to reach a two-week high before the pullback.

Market commentary noted that speculation over whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy to counter rising energy-driven inflation has weighed on gold, since higher interest rates typically raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Despite the retreat, gold remained above the psychologically important $4,000 level this week after falling from its January record high, with traders watching whether the metal can build momentum toward resistance near $4,200.


In sum, early Thursday trading showed risk sentiment tempered by a mix of geopolitical uncertainty and profit-season dynamics. Commodity-linked strength had supported the TSX the day before, but fresh concerns linked to widening conflict in the Middle East and caution around tech-sector spending plans pushed futures lower on both sides of the border. Investors were set to parse earnings from major U.S. technology and industrial names later in the session for further signals on how corporate spending and demand trends might shape markets going forward.

Risks

  • Escalation or widening of the Middle East conflict could further disrupt oil shipments from the Gulf, directly affecting energy sector revenues and global inflation expectations.
  • Higher energy-driven inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which would influence bond yields and pressure non-yielding assets such as gold.
  • Intensified capital expenditure by major technology firms is contributing to concerns about negative free cash flow, which may weigh on valuations in the technology sector during earnings season.

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