A new opinion survey across 15 European countries finds only 11% of respondents view the United States as an ally, the lowest reading recorded in the series. That share has fallen from 16% six months ago and 22% in November 2024, according to results published on Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The poll, released in the run-up to upcoming G7 and NATO summits, indicates growing scepticism about US security guarantees: majorities in every country polled said they doubted whether the United States would come to their defence in the event of an attack.
Support for raising national defence spending rose by four percentage points compared with last year. Italy was notable as the sole country where a clear majority opposed higher defence budgets.
On collective financing, the survey found 47% of respondents across the region back the idea of collective EU borrowing to pay for defence initiatives. Support varied by country, with Portugal showing the strongest backing at 59%, followed by Denmark at 56% and the Netherlands at 55%.
Preferences for military procurement shifted toward European suppliers, with most respondents favouring a reduction in dependence on US military equipment and a move to buy European-made alternatives. Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden displayed the highest levels of support for purchasing European weapons. Poland was the exception to the regional trend - it was the only country where a majority favoured increasing purchases of US-made weapons. Germany, Italy and Hungary showed pronounced division on this procurement question.
Domestic politics also play a role in responses about fiscal trade-offs. Opposition to cutting domestic public spending to fund larger defence budgets remained especially strong in Italy, where 63% opposed such cuts, followed by Austria at 59% and Germany at 56%.
Energy policy responses reflected persistent reluctance to re-engage with Russian oil and gas: 44% of Europeans opposed resuming imports from Russia even in the face of higher costs. Views on Ukraine remain broadly sympathetic, with most respondents continuing to see Ukraine as an ally or strategic partner. However, support wanes for sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine after the war or for accelerating eastward expansion of EU membership.
Looking ahead, the poll found that a majority in every country except Bulgaria expect US-European relations to improve once President Donald Trump leaves office.
The survey was conducted in May 2026 and carried out by a group of pollsters including Mandate Research and YouGov. It sampled people aged 18 and over in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.