Poland's central bank published revised economic projections on Wednesday that adjust its medium-term inflation outlook upward while trimming expectations for economic expansion in the near term.
In its updated forecast, consumer price inflation for 2026 is now projected to lie in a band between 2.4% and 3.3%, an upward revision from the March range of 1.6% to 2.9%. For 2027 the bank set its inflation forecast at 1.5% to 4.0%, compared with the earlier 1.1% to 3.7% range. The outlook for 2028 was adjusted only marginally to 0.8% to 3.9%, versus 0.9% to 4.0% in the prior projection.
Alongside the inflation revisions, the central bank reduced its GDP growth forecasts for the coming years. The forecast for economic growth in 2026 was lowered to a range of 3.0% to 4.4%, down from the March projection of 3.1% to 4.7%. Growth expectations for 2027 were also trimmed to 1.8% to 3.7%, from 2.0% to 3.8%. The projection for 2028 remained essentially unchanged at 1.9% to 4.1% versus 1.8% to 4.1% previously.
The bank noted that it may intervene in the foreign exchange market and emphasized that future policy decisions will depend on incoming data. In its commentary, the institution identified fiscal policy and wage growth as risks to the inflation outlook. It also pointed to the geopolitical situation, commodity prices and global inflation as continuing to shape the consumer price outlook.
The revised projections reflect the bank's reassessment of the balance of risks to inflation and growth. By raising its central inflation ranges for 2026 and 2027 and trimming near-term growth forecasts, the bank signaled a shift in its path for the coming years while underlining the conditional nature of policy choices - with foreign exchange intervention explicitly flagged as an available tool and further moves tied to new data.
Market participants and policy watchers will be watching incoming fiscal developments, wage dynamics and external price pressures closely, given the bank's identification of those elements as pivotal for future inflation outcomes.
Clear summary
The central bank lifted its inflation forecasts for 2026-2028 and reduced GDP growth projections for 2026 and 2027. It warned that fiscal policy and wage growth pose risks to inflation, flagged geopolitical and commodity-price influences on consumer prices, and said it could intervene in the FX market with future decisions guided by incoming data.