Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,188 total articles
The Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation gauge showed a slight decline to 2.3% year-over-year in April, down from 2.4% in March. Proponents of the measure, including its producers, warn the reading may understate underlying price pressures because recent tariff-driven price jumps have reversed the measure’s usual statistical skew. Core personal cons…
HSBC has adjusted its outlook for Bank of Japan policy, now forecasting two 25-basis-point rate increases in 2026 — a move in June rather than July, followed by another in December — which would raise the policy rate to 1.25% by year-end. The bank pointed to three central factors: the near-term composition of the BoJ Policy Board, persistent inflat…
Speaking in New York, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for a renewed partnership with the United States to reinforce both economies as global commercial relationships undergo a 'rupture.' He urged targeted collaboration in sectors such as aluminum, automobiles and critical minerals and highlighted Canada’s recent push to diversify exports…
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem told an economic conference in Reykjavik that the Fed may need to raise its policy rate if disinflation does not resume within one to two quarters. His comments come as U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation accelerated in April and as new Fed chair Kevin Warsh signals confidence in AI's…
The U.S. Treasury has publicly warned Oman against participating in the creation of a toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on X that the U.S. government will not accept attempts to impose tolls in the strait and that the Treasury will target parties who help facilitate such a system, whether their involvement …
The Bank of Canada says Canada’s financial system remains resilient in the face of recent global shocks, but its 2026 Financial Stability Report highlights multiple vulnerabilities. The central bank pointed to heavy stock market exposure to large technology firms tied to artificial intelligence, growing hedge fund activity in funding and government…
Russia has placed a second tranche of 10-year sovereign bonds denominated in Chinese yuan, setting the size at 10 billion yuan (about $1.5 billion) with a coupon of 7.65%. The offering comes shortly after meetings between Russian and Chinese leaders in Beijing and follows previous yuan bond sales last year. The move reflects Moscow's efforts to rai…
The U.S. Treasury announced it has removed 76 persons, vessels and entities from the Specially Designated Nationals list, saying the entries were outdated. The department framed the action as a means to ease compliance costs for businesses and to prioritize enforcement activity against complex and high‑risk sanctions evasion, noting a marked rise i…
Brazil's central bank monetary policy director said the institution will act to prevent an uptick in inflation expectations from translating into actual inflation, stressing policymakers retain capacity and a legal duty to meet the 3% target and that recent rate cuts do not indicate a dovish pivot. He noted supply shocks tied to the Iran conflict s…
China priced a 6 billion yuan offshore green sovereign bond in Hong Kong, its first green note sale in the city. The offering was evenly split into three- and five-year tranches, with yields of 1.42% and 1.56% respectively, which tightened versus initial guidance. Proceeds are earmarked to finance or refinance green initiatives aimed at supporting …
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said he is skeptical that gains from artificial intelligence will reduce inflation sufficiently to permit easier monetary policy. Speaking at a Reykjavik conference, he argued current data - including inflation above target and a stable labor market - do not support a move to looser rates and warn…
South Africa's central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7%, the first hike since 2023, citing elevated inflation risks tied to the Iran war. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee voted 4-2 in favour of the increase after considering scenarios that showed higher inflation and slower growth. Markets saw a firmer rand, a drop in th…
The Bank of Canada’s 2026 Financial System Report concludes that Canada’s financial system remains resilient while pointing to rising vulnerabilities tied to lofty stock and corporate debt valuations and increased hedge fund purchases of sovereign bonds using leverage. The report, presented by Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers and Deputy Govern…
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said monetary policy is currently appropriate given the economic outlook, while warning inflation will be elevated in the near term because of recent tariff hikes and an energy shock from the Middle East conflict. He described policy as slightly restrictive, signaled the Fed is taking a longer-term v…
The International Monetary Fund's mission chief for Sri Lanka said the country's monetary policy is broadly appropriate and that the economy retains the capacity to meet the IMF's 3% growth target this year. The remarks came after the Central Bank of Sri Lanka raised its overnight policy rate by 100 basis points to 8.75% amid inflationary pressure …
Senior Bank of Canada officials said the nation’s financial system has performed well over a challenging period, with households and firms largely stable and banks bolstering their shock-absorption capacity. However, the Financial Stability Report highlights rising vulnerabilities in asset valuations, expanding non-bank leverage and new risks tied …
UBS contends that recent increases in U.S. Treasury yields exaggerate the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes. While the bank has pushed back its timeline for when easing might resume to December and then to March 2027 for a further cut, it stops short of endorsing the more hawkish market pricing. UBS highlights slower-than-expected …
The Commerce Department's second estimate for first-quarter U.S. GDP was revised down to a 1.6% annualized pace, driven by weaker inventory investment and consumer spending. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - the personal consumption expenditures price index - rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, matching economists' ex…
A Reuters poll of 24 economists indicates Brazil's economy probably expanded 1.0% in January-March from the prior quarter, led by a rebound in manufacturing and a pickup in services and household spending. Annual growth is seen at 1.8%. Official figures are due Friday. Analysts note improving industrial momentum, support from rising oil exports and…
John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told attendees at the Reykjavík Economic Conference that identifying structural shifts in productivity as they occur is one of the central difficulties facing economic policymakers. He highlighted historical episodes of productivity acceleration and slowdown, underlined the 'recognit…
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams told an economic conference that identifying structural changes in productivity as they occur is extraordinarily difficult. In prepared remarks for the Reykjavík Economic Conference in Iceland, Williams said expectations of future growth adjust slowly and that an initial productivity shift ma…
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, the fastest increase since May 2023, propelled by sharp energy price gains linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Core inflation also ticked up, consumer spending remained robust, and markets expect interest rates to stay elevated for an extended period.
Ivan Cepeda, a leftist senator shaped by exile and the assassination of his father, is campaigning to extend and intensify the economic and social reforms initiated by President Gustavo Petro. Leading in opinion polls but unlikely to secure an outright majority on Sunday, Cepeda has outlined an agenda of 'social capitalism' that includes expanded i…
A recent selloff in U.S. government bonds is eroding the traditional negative correlation between stocks and Treasuries, as inflation worries, stronger U.S. growth signals and fiscal pressures push long-term yields higher. The change has raised questions about the effectiveness of the 60/40 portfolio and prompted many managers to favor shorter matu…
UniCredit's deputy vice chair and head of the bank's risk committee, Elena Carletti, cautioned that Europe is less equipped than the United States to counter banking stress that originates from links between crypto assets and lenders. She cited the U.S. use of a 'systemic risk' exception during the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis to guarantee all d…
