Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,932 total articles
Saudi Arabia recorded a budget deficit of 34.3 billion riyals ($9.14 billion) in the second quarter of 2026, the finance ministry said, as government spending increased by 11% while total revenue grew 12%. Oil receipts rose strongly, but non-oil revenue showed only modest gains. The deficit is marginally larger than the 34 billion riyals posted in …
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 3.7% year-on-year in June, down from an unrevised 4.1% in May, while the month-over-month PCE fell 0.1%. Core PCE eased to 3.3% year-on-year. Officials and markets remain watchful as renewed conflict in the Middle East has lifted oil and gasoline prices, threatening to reverse the recent modera…
U.S. stock index futures rose modestly on July 30 as investors parsed June inflation data, an advance estimate of second-quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. The Commerce Department reported the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index fell 0.1% in June, with the annual rate at 3.7%. Core PCE rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-ye…
U.S. economic growth slowed to a 1.5% annualized pace in the second quarter as a widening trade deficit weighed on headline GDP. Beneath the surface, consumer outlays rebounded sharply and business investment in equipment tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure stayed strong. Policymakers and markets remain attentive to inflation, energy pri…
Global central banks in the Group of 10 have adopted a cautious approach to policy tightening, holding many rates steady while markets weigh the inflationary implications of rising energy prices and uncertain effects from accelerated investment in AI. The Federal Reserve's decision to pause, accompanied by mixed signals from its leadership, sparked…
Preliminary figures from Germany's federal statistics office show headline inflation climbed to 2.8% year-on-year in July, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, dipped to 2.4%. The data arrive ahead of euro zone CPI estimates and come after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged in…
China's Politburo convened a mid-year meeting to review economic policy, issuing a statement that struck a constructive tone but stopped short of announcing fresh measures. The readout removed earlier language describing major indicators as "better than expected," reiterated support for new growth drivers and an improving economic structure, and sa…
The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% following a 6-3 split on the Monetary Policy Committee. In accompanying analysis it published three scenarios - central, milder and adverse - that outline alternative paths for inflation, output, and energy prices through 2029. Markets are pricing a high probability of two rate hikes by Q3…
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, with a majority opting to wait for clearer evidence on energy-driven inflation and second-round effects. Three members advocated an immediate increase to 4% to address upside risks tied to geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility.
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three members preferring a rise to 4% as renewed conflict between the United States and Iran lifted risks to energy markets. Governor Andrew Bailey and the majority of the MPC continued a wait-and-see strategy aimed at preventing inflation from drifting s…
U.S. stock futures were steady after a sharp market selloff tied to uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy. Microsoft’s stronger-than-expected earnings, an upbeat near-term sales and cloud outlook, and a capital expenditure plan below analyst estimates helped soothe investor worries about rising AI-related costs at major tech firms. Still, mixed s…
U.S. vehicle leasing has not returned to pre-pandemic levels after falling sharply during post-pandemic shortages. Automakers' reduced willingness to offer low monthly lease payments, combined with higher interest rates and tighter inventories, has pushed some buyers into extended financing and constrained the supply of off-lease used vehicles.
Four major South Korean oil refiners are evaluating Venezuelan crude shipments as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz prompt a search for more diversified and price-competitive sources. GS Caltex has already brought in a test cargo, while HD Hyundai Oilbank, SK Innovation and S-Oil are assessing their options. The refiners are also examining suppli…
Indonesia's constitutional court has determined that the multibillion-dollar free meals initiative cannot continue to be financed from the education operational budget, requiring a separate line item in the state budget no later than 2028. The decision responds to petitions from students and educators and highlights tensions between nutrition goals…
Italy's unemployment rate increased to 5.7% in June from a revised 5.3% in May. The rise outpaced a median forecast of 5.1% from a poll of 10 analysts and coincided with a larger number of people entering the labour market, while total employment was broadly unchanged for the month. Youth unemployment also climbed and the inactivity rate fell.
Eurostat data showed the euro area economy grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, beating Reuters poll expectations of 0.2%, with year-on-year growth of 1.0%. The expansion was supported by rising business investment in AI, sustained household consumption, government spending and several one-off elements, while the war in Iran and high energy costs re…
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% after a two-day meeting, though three officials voted for a 25 basis point increase. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% goal, driven in part by energy price swings linked to the Iran conflict, while June consumer price readings were softer than expected. Fed Ch…
Preliminary July inflation data from four major German states show accelerating consumer price growth, raising the likelihood of an increase in the national inflation rate when official figures are released. The German government and economists point to higher energy and raw material prices driven by conflict in the Middle East as key contributors,…
Chinese leaders said on July 30 they will speed up fiscal spending and introduce 'incremental policies' to support growth in the second half of the year after second-quarter GDP expanded 4.3%, the slowest pace in more than three years and below the lower bound of the full-year 4.5% to 5.0% target. The Politburo acknowledged economic 'difficulties a…
Capgemini's CEO Aiman Ezzat said firms aiming to roll out AI at scale face a prerequisite: modernising long-standing technology stacks. The company forecasts a multi-year investment cycle in data, software and infrastructure as businesses confront technical debt and fragmented systems, and it has lifted its 2026 revenue growth target after stronger…
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher as market participants digested the Federal Reserve's decision to keep its policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% despite a three-member push for a hike, while attention also centered on earnings from large technology firms investing heavily in artificial intelligence. Persistent concerns about inflation linked to an e…
A poll of economists indicates China's official manufacturing activity likely stalled in July, with an expected PMI reading at 50.0. While external demand — particularly for AI-related high-tech goods — has supported production, weak domestic consumption, sluggish bank lending and persistent housing and employment weaknesses are weighing on broader…
J.P. Morgan has revised its forecast and now anticipates a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate in December, after the Federal Reserve elected to keep policy rates steady at its July meeting. The bank cited comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, persistent inflationary pressures, and the potential for committee urgency as reasons for bri…
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, a decision that produced three dissents and was widely characterized as a "hawkish hold." With a new Fed chair abandoning regular forward guidance, markets are increasingly relying on incoming data to anticipate future rate moves. That shift has elevated the pot…
A divided Federal Reserve and ambiguous guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh have left bond markets effectively dictating interest rate expectations. While the Fed held policy steady, three dissenting votes signaled growing disagreement among officials. Rising long-term yields and a steepening Treasury curve coincided with fragile risk appetite driven b…
