Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
5,909 total articles
The European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday in a widely signalled step aimed at preventing a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran war from translating into broader inflation. The bank upgraded its inflation outlook and trimmed growth forecasts, underscoring a delicate balance between reining in price pressures and avoiding a deepe…
The European Central Bank increased its main deposit rate to 2.25% from 2%, marking the first rate rise in nearly three years as officials seek to restrain inflation surging above target amid a jump in energy prices linked to the Iran war. Updated staff projections revise inflation higher for 2026 and growth lower for the year ahead.
Lazard says the rapid growth of complex debt instruments in emerging and frontier markets - including contingent bonds, GDP-linked notes and total return swaps - may increase borrowing costs and complicate or delay debt restructurings. The firm calls for enforceable transparency and warns investor exuberance may be underpricing risks.
Argentine sovereign bonds led gains in emerging-market debt after S&P Global Ratings raised the country's sovereign rating to B- from CCC+. The move, announced Wednesday, reflected improved fiscal outcomes and steps by the government to ease liquidity pressures for upcoming foreign-currency debt service. Notes maturing in 2035 were among the bigges…
U.S. Central Command reports that a U.S. aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles into the engine room of the Guinea-Bissau-flagged M/T Jalveer in the Gulf of Oman after the vessel's crew repeatedly failed to follow directions from U.S. forces. CENTCOM said the Jalveer was attempting to transport Iranian oil through an American blockade. The action is …
A Bloomberg Z-score assessment of U.S. dollar-denominated investment grade technology debt shows select IBM and Dell bonds trading significantly tighter than their peer group averages, while several Broadcom-related securities displayed unusually wide spreads. The analysis highlights relative spread moves in primary tech issuers including Qualcomm …
Kazakhstan will raise its national minimum monthly wage in 2027, with the government to decide the exact increase after August 1. The current floor is 85,000 tenge (about $174) and was left unchanged for 2026. Officials are also weighing pay rises for government and other workers, while the central bank says the move is unlikely to materially boost…
Turkey's central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 37% on Thursday, the third straight meeting with no change, and kept the overnight lending rate at 40% and borrowing rate at 35.5%. The bank said it would continue to monitor inflationary effects from the Iran conflict after raising its end-2026 interim inflation target in May and noting prono…
The Kremlin said proposed European Union sanctions directed at Russian banks and cryptocurrency networks will not harm banks' operations or profits, arguing that the country’s largest lenders have functioned under long-standing restrictions without adverse effects. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cited ongoing central bank oversight and President P…
Serbia said it has cleared outstanding issues with Hungary's MOL Group concerning a potential transaction involving Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). Under the arrangement, Belgrade would acquire an additional 5% of NIS if MOL and Gazprom Neft complete a deal for the 56.15% stake currently held by the Russian parties, a move that would strengthen Ser…
UBS has moved its projection for the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut to March 2027, pointing to still-firm inflation measures and a robust labor market. The bank expects a second cut in June 2027 and sees the policy rate ultimately returning to a 3.00-3.25% range, while flagging mixed inflation readings and upside risks tied to energy and…
Pakistan’s annual economic survey projects real GDP growth of 3.7% for the fiscal year ending June 2026. The report highlights an average CPI inflation rate of 6.7% in the July-May period, a modest current account deficit of $252 million in July-April, and a trade shortfall of $23.53 billion from July to March. Fiscal metrics improved markedly, wit…
The National Bank of Serbia left its key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, with the deposit and lending facilities held at 4.5% and 7.0%, respectively. Officials described the stance as wait-and-see, identifying a Middle East energy shock as the principal new factor affecting future decisions. The bank now explicitly anticipates a temporary breach of…
Pakistan will present a delayed 17.1-trillion-rupee budget for the year starting next month that prioritizes fiscal consolidation under IMF conditions. The plan seeks to shield the poorest through cash transfers while increasing the burden on formally registered businesses and salaried workers as politically powerful sectors remain hard to tax. Ris…
Ireland's annual consumer price inflation cooled to 3.6% in May from 3.7% in April, the Central Statistics Office reported. On a monthly basis the Consumer Price Index fell 0.1%, reversing April's 0.5% increase. Education services and clothing and footwear recorded the largest annual price gains. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, which enabl…
India's aggregate fuel consumption in May came in at 19.93 million metric tons, down 6.5% from a year earlier, according to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. The month saw mixed product-level movements: gasoline and diesel rose, liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha dropped sharply, bitumen declined substantially, and fuel oil use increased.
Deutsche Bank Research expects UK headline consumer price inflation to increase to 3.01% year-on-year in May 2026, with services inflation rebounding to 3.65% year-on-year. The bank warns of mounting price pressures as energy bill resets approach, and it has adjusted its full-year CPI and RPI forecasts while flagging upside risks tied to geopolitic…
The World Bank projects Indonesia's GDP growth to slow to 5% in 2026 as large fiscal outlays and rising fuel subsidy costs, amplified by higher oil prices and rupiah depreciation, strain public finances. The projection is below the government's 5.4% to 6% growth targets and hinges on the effectiveness of frontloaded fiscal measures to sustain publi…
U.S. equity futures ticked higher after a steep selloff as renewed strikes between Washington and Tehran, hotter U.S. consumer inflation readings and concerns around AI-related capital demands roiled markets. Oil slipped back from an earlier jump following an unverified report of overnight talks. Oracle's announcement of plans to raise substantial …
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's two-week hospitalisation removes the visible anchor from a critical June policy meeting and could complicate communications as the BOJ moves toward further rate increases. While officials and analysts say the upcoming rate decision is settled and Ueda is expected to continue duties remotely and return in July, hi…
European stocks moved modestly higher in choppy trade as investors balanced rising Middle East tensions and firm oil prices against positive corporate updates and gains in semiconductor names. Attention is set on the European Central Bank’s policy decision later in the day, with markets pricing a 25-basis-point hike and watching how an oil-driven s…
China’s recent enforcement against cross-border investment channels and the punishment of three online brokers for allegedly facilitating overseas share purchases has raised immediate caution among Hong Kong financial firms and their mainland clients. The move threatens revenue streams from insurance sales, wealth management products and stock deal…
The European Central Bank is widely expected to end a year-long pause and raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its upcoming meeting, responding to a sharp energy-driven inflation shock tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. With consumer inflation at 3.2% in May and core inflation at 2.5%, economists forecast the ECB…
For a second day running, U.S. and Iranian forces traded airstrikes, with U.S. Central Command describing American strikes as self-defense after a downed U.S. helicopter. Iran responded with attacks on U.S. bases and allied positions across the Gulf and asserted it had blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - a claim the U.S. denied. Presiden…
Fresh U.S. strikes in Iran and retaliatory statements from Tehran pushed Brent crude higher and undermined global equity confidence. Technology names, meanwhile, faced renewed pressure amid repositioning ahead of a large IPO and weaker-than-expected corporate guidance. Market attention shifts to the European Central Bank meeting, German current acc…
