Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,188 total articles
A recent Quaest poll commissioned by brokerage Genial indicates a statistical tie between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical second round of Brazil's October presidential election, with each candidate receiving 41% in the survey. The poll also provides a range of first-round outcomes across seven simu…
Russian authorities are weighing a possible 10% reduction in all non-sensitive budget expenditures for 2026 while redirecting more revenue into the budget reserve fund. Final decisions are contingent on whether the recent spike in oil prices, driven by conflict-related supply disruptions, proves sustainable. Officials say cuts would avoid touching …
U.S. consumer inflation in February rose 2.4% from a year earlier and 0.3% from January, aligning with economists' forecasts. While the print relieved some inflation concerns, market attention shifted to the spike in crude-oil prices after the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, prompting investor anxiety about future inflation and influencing moves in …
Senior Gulf officials say several of the region's largest economies have begun reviewing sovereign wealth fund strategies and other financial commitments to manage economic damage from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The reassessments could include reversing investment pledges, divestments and a re-evaluation of global sponsorship deals as governme…
Wolfe Research says recent jumps in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict could shift spending toward energy, creating a small drag on nominal GDP, but fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and elevated tax refunds are expected to cushion consumers and sustain spending in the near term.
Wells Fargo economists say a sharp uptick in oil and gasoline prices has become a new downside risk for the U.S. economy. With employment growth stalling and real personal income excluding transfers weakening, sustained higher fuel costs could push inflation above 3% and produce outright declines in real income. The bank nonetheless finds the econo…
Sweden's finance ministry has reduced its projection for 2026 economic growth to 2.8%, down from a December forecast of 3%. The revision, announced in Stockholm by Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson, attributes the downgrade to softer household confidence driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Despite the cut, the ministry notes the …
Consumer prices in the United States rose 2.4% year-on-year in February, and the month-on-month Consumer Price Index climbed 0.3% from January - both outcomes matching economist forecasts. Investors, however, focused on the fallout from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has pushed oil prices sharply higher and raised concerns about future …
The Bank of Israel issued a formal statement warning that increased defence spending and a higher deficit target related to the Iran war raise short-term downside risks to economic activity. The central bank emphasized disciplined fiscal choices, advising against funding new non-war programs or tax cuts, and warned that the revised 2026 deficit tar…
U.S. consumer prices increased 0.3% in February, matching economists' expectations and following a 0.2% rise in January. Gasoline costs reversed a recent two-month decline and broader inflation measures showed mixed signals: headline CPI held at a 12-month gain of 2.4%, while core CPI excluding food and energy slowed to a 0.2% monthly gain. Officia…
U.S. stock index futures edged downward following a Labor Department report showing February consumer price readings that matched economist forecasts. The headline Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, while the core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. Markets responded cautiously as inves…
The Department of Homeland Security has reinstated the Global Entry program for pre-approved low-risk travelers after a suspension that began on Feb. 22. The agency said the pause was intended to "preserve limited funds and personnel" during a partial government shutdown, but pressure from airlines and travel groups contributed to the program's res…
A sharp rise in oil prices following the escalation of conflict involving Iran has reduced the space for interest-rate cuts among many emerging market central banks. Higher inflation expectations, risk aversion and upward pressure on borrowing costs have prompted policymakers from Central and Eastern Europe to Latin America and Turkey to reassess p…
The escalation of tensions involving Iran and the accompanying volatility in oil prices have shifted the balance of risks around U.S. monetary policy. Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist says the distribution of potential outcomes now favors a later - and in one scenario - a deeper easing cycle by the Federal Reserve. The firm's base case still a…
Bank of America has updated its projection for the South African Reserve Bank's policy decision on March 26, moving from an anticipated 25 basis point rate cut to a call for no change. The shift reflects concern that a recent rise in oil prices and an expected 10-20% increase in fuel costs in April will elevate headline inflation risks, even as pos…
US 30-year mortgage rates rose by 10 basis points to 6.19% in the week ended March 6, the largest weekly increase since September, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data. The uptick coincided with a sharp rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield amid disruptions to oil flows tied to the war with Iran. Despite the rate move, purchase applicatio…
The U.S. Justice Department has begun investigating reports that Iran used the Binance cryptocurrency exchange to evade American sanctions. The probe follows the cessation of an internal Binance review that reportedly traced more than $1 billion in transactions to a network tied to Iran-backed terror groups. Authorities have contacted people with k…
A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon operated through the Taiwan Strait in international airspace, the U.S. 7th Fleet said, calling the flight a demonstration of U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The movement occurred before a scheduled visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to China this month as the two powers seek to steady relations strained …
Swiss duty-free retailer Avolta said it is premature to determine how the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will affect its business, after releasing full-year 2025 results. The company noted its limited revenue exposure in the region and cited a historically weak relationship between oil-price swings and its passenger-driven sales. Avolta also s…
Capital Economics says U.S. status as a modest net energy exporter would soften the economic impact if West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaged roughly $100 per barrel for the remainder of the year. Higher fuel costs would trim non-energy consumer spending and modestly slow GDP growth, but gains in oil-producing regions would offset some of the effec…
British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves told the Treasury Committee that it is too soon to quantify how the Middle East conflict will affect the UK economy. The government is assessing multiple scenarios, monitoring developments closely, and intends to protect consumers from potential fallout while balancing national security and fiscal constraints.…
Finance Minister Rachel Reeves told lawmakers it is premature to pin down how the Middle East conflict will affect UK inflation, growth or interest rates. She said officials are examining multiple scenarios, that markets remain orderly, and outlined the government's conditional stance on energy levies and consumer support.
A broadly supported bill in Congress would cut regulatory red tape to accelerate new housing supply, modernize factory-built home rules, expand financing for affordable units and prohibit large firms from buying additional single-family homes. The measure, backed across party lines and by industry groups, cleared a key Senate procedural vote and no…
Anthropic has sued to overturn a Pentagon determination that it is a national security supply chain risk, arguing the decision infringes on its First and Fifth Amendment rights and exceeded the limits of a rarely used procurement statute. Legal scholars say the case could force courts to clarify whether Section 3252 - the law invoked by the Defense…
The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% at its monetary policy assessment on Thursday, according to UBS economists Maxime Botteron and Alessandro Bee. Recent geopolitical tensions have pushed oil above $100 per barrel and driven a notable appreciation of the Swiss franc. UBS estimates suggest the two forces largely can…
