Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,933 total articles
Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin warned that recent signs of elevated inflation and stronger payroll data may change the Federal Reserve's current risk calculus. Barkin said upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures numbers and the potential inflationary effect of higher gas prices amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could make policym…
Brazil's central bank monetary policy director Nilton David said the institution will adopt a cautious stance when evaluating incoming data after oil prices rose amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. While the bank's January guidance that an easing cycle would begin remains in place as part of a 'calibration' process, officials are focused on t…
Renewed conflict in the Middle East has pushed investors back toward perceived safe assets, but the reactions across the dollar, government bonds, gold, major currency havens and defensive stocks have been uneven. The dollar has gained ground, sovereigns are trading on inflation and fiscal cues, gold remains a volatile yet credible refuge, classic …
Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said persistent inflation and firmer-than-expected labor readings have the potential to change the Federal Reserve's assessment of risks, particularly as the U.S. conflict with Iran risks pushing consumer prices higher. Barkin highlighted that last year’s rate cuts reflected a view that labor-market ris…
Morgan Stanley's strategists have abandoned their prior call for two European Central Bank rate cuts in 2026, citing a renewed risk of higher inflation after a joint U.S.-Israel strike on Iran pushed oil and natural gas prices up and created a shipping bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank's analysts now expect policy to remain on hold throu…
Bank of America economists say the recent U.S.-Iran tensions have not changed their baseline view for the U.S. economy. The bank warns that macro risks remain modest unless crude prices rise sharply, with the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the dollar's path the main near-term variables to watch.
Minutes from the European Central Bank's February meeting indicate officials expected inflation to drop further below the 2% target prior to a recent surge in oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East. While the bank left interest rates unchanged and cited confidence in the outlook - including the euro's strength - the spike in energy costs …
Italy is preparing targeted steps to protect its economy, exporters and households from the economic effects of the escalating Middle East crisis, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told parliament. He said rising oil and gas prices, higher maritime insurance premiums and strains on shipping routes are already producing visible consequences, and warne…
Ireland’s domestic economy expanded 4.9% in 2025, propelled by a 1.0% rise in the final quarter. The Central Statistics Office said the modified domestic demand measure - which strips out distortions from the multinational sector - recorded solid gains after a 1.8% increase in 2024. Headline GDP grew 12.3% for the year due to a surge in pharmaceuti…
European equities recovered modestly after a sharp rebound in Asian markets, which followed de-escalation rumors and large stabilization steps in South Korea. Still, higher oil prices tied to the Iran-Israel conflict kept downward pressure on regional currencies and government bonds while safe-haven assets and yields reacted to shifting risk expect…
The Iran conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and struck key Gulf port infrastructure, exposing vulnerabilities in the region's import-dependent food strategy developed after the 2008 global food crisis. While Gulf states built overseas agricultural stakes and strategic grain silos to manage shocks, blockages and rerouting f…
European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel warned that a prolonged war in Iran would push up inflation across the euro area and weigh on economic growth, but said it is too early to make definitive judgements about policy settings. Nagel, presenting the Bundesbank's 2025 annual report, also disclosed an 8.6 billion euro loss tied to bond purch…
Goldman Sachs warns that a widening conflict in Iran, which could curtail Middle East oil and gas flows, raises the risk of a temporary oil price surge to $100 per barrel. Under its baseline, the bank expects only modest economic effects, but a jump to $100 would materially increase global inflation and slow growth, with implications for monetary p…
Senior executives from China’s leading semiconductor firms and institutes published a joint appeal urging the government to coordinate resources and plans to develop complete operational lithography systems between 2026 and 2030. They highlighted existing technical advances in subsystems but said the task of integrating those components into full m…
Three people familiar with policymaker deliberations and market analysts say the U.S. and Israel’s military action against Iran has raised oil prices and disrupted regional gas supplies in ways that are likely to slow India’s economic growth more than push up consumer inflation. That dynamic, they add, makes the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unlikely…
Bank Negara Malaysia held its overnight policy rate at 2.75% on Thursday, in line with the unanimous forecast of 27 economists surveyed by LSEG. The central bank's choice reflects subdued headline inflation of 1.6% year-over-year in January and a view that current price dynamics are not an immediate policy concern, even as global energy prices rise…
U.S. equity futures fell early Thursday as the conflict involving Iran extended into a sixth day, lifting oil prices and adding to investor uncertainty. Republican senators blocked a congressional measure aimed at limiting President Trump's authority to continue strikes. Energy benchmarks rose sharply, while Broadcom stock jumped after better-than-…
Morgan Stanley now expects the European Central Bank to hold interest rates through 2026 and postpone previously forecast cuts until 2027, citing higher inflation risks tied to the conflict in the Middle East and recent energy-price increases. The move follows similar shifts by other brokerages and comes as oil jumps amid supply concerns.
U.S. equity futures fell as investors absorbed a widening Middle East conflict and its potential economic consequences. Iran launched a new missile barrage toward Israel, safe-haven assets gained, and oil extended a steep weekly rally, while markets awaited upcoming U.S. labor data and Fed commentary.
A unanimous poll of analysts expects the State Bank of Pakistan to keep its policy rate at 10.5% at an upcoming review, as rising global energy costs and regional tensions heighten inflationary risks and constrain further easing. Policymakers have cut the key rate sharply since mid-2024 but face external headwinds that could delay additional reduct…
Japan’s largest labour federation, Rengo, said member unions are asking for an average wage increase of 5.94% in the 2026 wage negotiations, a demand underpinned by persistent inflation and chronic labour shortages. The figure is slightly below last year’s 6.09% request but still tops Rengo’s 2026 target of at least 5%. Separate union group UA Zens…
An IMF staff mission to Kenya has concluded after talks with Kenyan authorities focused on recent economic developments and technical preparations for a requested lending programme. The IMF said discussions highlighted the need for stronger fiscal discipline, improved fiscal credibility, and greater resilience to external shocks. Kenyan officials a…
German government bonds are ceding ground to other traditional safe havens such as gold, the Swiss franc and the yen as investors reevaluate shelter options. Concerns over Germany's planned fiscal expansion, coupled with the European Central Bank's reduction of pandemic-era bond holdings, have prompted questions about a future supply-demand imbalan…
A senior European Central Bank supervisor says direct exposures of euro zone banks to the Iran-Israel conflict are small, but cautions that rising energy prices and a cooling economy could produce more serious strains on lenders' balance sheets. He also flagged rapid growth in synthetic securitisation as an area needing closer supervisory oversight…
South Korean officials and semiconductor executives warn that the escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran could threaten supplies of key materials used in memory chip production, notably helium, and complicate plans by tech companies to expand AI data centers in the Middle East. Industry leaders say some firms source essential inputs from the reg…
