Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,933 total articles
Jefferies' equity strategy team warns that a prolonged period of elevated oil prices will put significant pressure on ASEAN economies, with the Philippines and Thailand singled out as the most vulnerable because of their dependence on energy imports. The note highlights diverging national responses - from subsidy cushions to state oil funds - and c…
Stifel strategists say recent coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have moved the Middle East into a more volatile phase, driving sharp increases in energy prices and prompting market rotations toward value-oriented sectors. With Brent up 14% and European natural gas rising 70%, supply …
A classified National Intelligence Council assessment concludes a large-scale, U.S.-led military assault is unlikely to remove Iran's government or permit a rapid transfer of power. Finalized about a week after the Feb. 28 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the report undercuts public assertions that the c…
Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, used his annual briefing at the National People’s Congress to call for an end to the Iran conflict and to press both Beijing and Washington to reduce frictions ahead of crucial trade and treasury talks in Paris and a planned summit in Beijing. His remarks stressed opposition to the use of force, warned against regime-…
China’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, said sustained high-level engagement between Beijing and Washington is essential to avoid dangerous misreadings that could escalate into confrontation. His remarks came at a press conference during China’s annual parliamentary session ahead of a summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President D…
Australia is assessing a formal plea from Gulf states for defensive military assistance as Iranian drone and missile strikes threaten the Middle East energy hub. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the government is deliberating the request and emphasized Australia will not participate in offensive operations or send ground forces into Iran. The decis…
A U.S. district judge has ruled that Kari Lake’s tenure as acting CEO of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) for part of 2025 was unlawful, voiding a series of decisions she made to reduce staff and curtail Voice of America broadcasts. The ruling grants plaintiffs summary judgment and places previously announced workforce reductions under cont…
President Donald Trump took to social media to criticize the United Kingdom's reported plans to send two Royal Navy aircraft carriers to the Middle East, saying British participation would be belated. The remarks come as U.S. and Israeli forces continue strikes on Iran and Iran carries out retaliatory attacks on neighboring states, driving global c…
Deutsche Bank's analysis says an 'oil shock' stemming from effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive UK headline inflation back toward 3% by the end of 2026. The bank's modeling links a sustained 10% rise in oil to a 0.2-0.3 percentage point boost to CPI within six to 12 months, and warns that prolonged elevated energy costs could shave…
Macquarie strategists warn that the U.S.-Iran War has triggered a negative supply shock that is pushing oil and gold higher, provoking a broad shift from risk assets to hard assets, and setting the stage for uneven growth across oil-importing and oil-exporting economies. Elevated insurance premiums for Strait of Hormuz transits, hoarding, and poten…
A new BCA Research report maps a recurring sequence in how markets and corporate fundamentals evolve around recessions: valuation multiples hit their high about a year before the downturn, stock prices and margins peak several months later, and earnings and revenues top out near the recession's start. While recessions compress earnings and sales an…
Barclays analysts say rising oil to $100 per barrel would pose notable risks for China through its heavy reliance on seaborne crude and LNG transits via the Strait of Hormuz, but the country’s strategic petroleum reserves, alternative supply sources and growing renewables share could soften headline macro effects.
Kuwait Petroleum Corp. has acknowledged it curtailed crude and refinery production after shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed. The state firm cited alleged Iranian actions and threats to vessel transit as the reason, joining other Gulf producers that have reported supply interruptions amid rising regional tensions.
Bank of America Global Research finds that recent moves in the Russell 2000 indicate some geopolitical risk has been incorporated into small-cap valuations, but warns that a sharper rise in global tensions could trigger deeper declines. Historically observed drawdowns, relative valuations versus large caps, and sector-level implications - notably f…
Bank of America Global Research reported that commodity trading advisors (CTAs) sharply reduced net long exposure to equities last week, driven by trend-following models that triggered stop levels. Starting the week with roughly $180 billion of net long exposure to global equities, CTAs concentrated initial selling in European and emerging market s…
Barclays analysts say oil trading around $100 per barrel would raise U.S. headline inflation in the near term, mainly via higher gasoline prices. A sustained 10% rise in crude could add about 0.2 percentage points to headline CPI within one to two months, but effects on core inflation would be smaller and unfold more slowly unless elevated prices p…
Morgan Stanley's impact assessment maps three possible outcomes from the Middle East conflict for global energy markets and foreign exchange. Under a benign near-term resolution EUR/USD could rise toward about 1.18, while a managed escalation leaves markets broadly where they are with Brent near $90 per barrel. A severe disruption could send the do…
Flight activity at Dubai International Airport was disrupted after multiple explosions were reported across the city. Authorities later confirmed activation of air defense systems. Emirates has suspended all flights to and from Dubai until further notice and advised travelers to avoid the airport, offering rebooking and refund options to affected p…
India's state-owned refiners raised prices for domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders for the first time in almost a year, citing disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The 7% hike for a 14.2-kilogram cylinder in New Delhi affects roughly 222 million households and follows government directives prioritizing household suppl…
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a temporary leadership council has approved a directive that bars offensive missile strikes against neighboring countries unless attacks on Iran originate from those territories. The declaration signals a formal no-first-strike stance aimed at reducing regional escalation while creating space to address dama…
China plans to deploy artificial intelligence widely to help integrate a record 12.7 million university graduates into the labor market. Authorities are emphasizing vocational training and internships in sectors such as the low-altitude economy, new-energy vehicles and generative AI, while warning of persistent uncertainties for overall employment …
Several U.S. and international investor groups are organizing trips to Venezuela in the coming weeks to meet senior officials, scrutinize investment opportunities and gather intelligence ahead of a likely debt restructuring. Organizers include New Jersey-based Trans-National Research, Caracas boutique Orinoco Research, and Signum Global Advisors. D…
A Jefferies analysis of more than 700 European data centres finds that headline sustainability KPIs like PUE can conceal large operational differences driven by facility scale, asset age and how renewable power is accounted for. Very large campuses outperform smaller legacy sites; new builds show strong water efficiency early but only reach peak en…
A draft policy from the Trump administration would compel private AI vendors to permit the U.S. government to use models for "any lawful" purpose, following a clash between the Department of War and Anthropic that led to the Pentagon labeling the company a "supply-chain risk." The move and accompanying General Services Administration provisions hav…
Japan has formally asked the United States to ensure that Tokyo’s preferential terms from last year’s trade deal are preserved amid U.S. moves to impose new blanket tariffs that could reach 15%. Japanese Minister Ryosei Akazawa pressed U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to exempt Japanese products, warning that higher duties would reverse conce…
